Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 Market is likely to continue in the consolidation range with a slight upward bias. 💼 A clear breakout above Nifty 25100 level, and sustaining above this level, will need sustained large buying. This can happen on positive news regarding a US-China trade deal. 💼 Reports of both countries reaching an agreement to implement the Geneva consensus are positive. 💼 China is playing their ‘rare earth minerals card’ effectively. 💼 How this trade deal between the two global economic giants develops remains to be seen. 💼 In the near-term the market will respond to news regarding the trade negotiations. 💼 If there is a clear agreement the market will respond positively and there is a high probability of Nifty breaking above 25100 and remaining above this level. 💼 Liquidity will support a mild rally. But a strong rally needs earnings support. 💼 There are no indications yet about a strong recovery in earnings. This will cap any short-term rally in the market. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Nifty is likely to consolidate in the 24500 - 25500 range in the near-term. 💼 There are no short-term triggers to take the Nifty beyond the upper band. 💼 Some profit booking pulling the market slightly down is likely. But ample liquidity will ensure that dips will get bought helping the market to consolidate. 💼 From the global perspective, market participants will be keenly following the progress of trade talks between the U.S. and China. 💼 Even though there is optimism regarding a favourable outcome, it is unlikely to happen quickly. 💼 Since the market has run up in the last two trading days and valuations have got stretched, some profit booking can be considered to hedge against unexpected developments. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The monetary bazooka fired by the RBI on Friday will keep the market spirits alive in the near-term. But this is not sufficient to sustain the rally triggered on Friday. More important is the trend in earnings growth. 💼 Q4 results indicate better earnings growth for midcaps. But large and small caps continue to struggle. 💼 FY26 earnings are unlikely to reach mid-teens, which is necessary for the market to remain resilient and move up. 💼 Market needs signs of revenue and earnings acceleration to move up. In the absence of such indicators, the present Nifty range is likely to move up marginally to 24500 - 25500. 💼 Ample liquidity can support the downside but earnings concerns will cap the upside. 💼 Weak US and Chinese macro data is favourable for emerging markets like India. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Uncertainty, which has been looming large on the global economic horizon, has spiked with the open spat between President Trump and Elon Musk. This unprecedented clash between two of the world’s most powerful and mercurial personalities will have its consequences on the policies of the US administration. 💼 Chinese restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals and magnets, in response to the reciprocal tariffs imposed by US, have already started impacting the EV automobile industry. 💼 Important US data like US ISM PMI and jobless claims indicate that the US economy is slowing down. 💼 US is likely to end 2025 with a GDP growth of mere 1%. 💼 US bond yields are likely to fall further which will be positive for EMs, particularly India, whose growth prospects are the brightest. 💼 In today’s monetary policy the RBI is likely to cut policy rates by 25 bp. This is already factored in by the market. 💼 More important will be the RBI commentary on growth and inflation projections for FY26. 💼 If the inflation forecast is cut from 4%, the market would respond positively. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Both geopolitical and economic news are likely to weigh on markets in the near-term. 💼 A serious concern is a potential Russian retaliation to the recent Ukraine attacks on Russian planes. 💼 How serious this will be and what will be its consequences are unknown factors now. 💼 The major economic news is the sharp dip in the US ISM PMI data. This indicates that the US economy is slowing down sharply. 💼 The US 10-year bond yield has declined to 4.36% and, given the slowing US economy, is likely to trend lower. This will turn out to be good for EMs like India in the medium term, but the spike in uncertainty will keep the market within the present range for the near-term. 💼 Buy on dips continues to be the ideal strategy now. 💼 Rate sensitives will be preferred in view of the expected rate cut by the MPC on 8th June. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The recent Nifty range of 24000–25000 is likely to persist in the near-term. 💼 In the medium-term, a breakout above 25000 is a clear possibility rather than a breakdown below 24000. 💼 Unexpected developments, however, can alter the scenario. 💼 The strong fundamental factors that will support the market are India’s robust and improving macros and sustained flows into mutual funds, particularly the SIP inflows which are steady and growing. This reflects the coming of age of the Indian retail investor. 💼 An important takeaway from the Q4 results is the outperformance of the midcaps relative to largecaps and smallcaps. 💼 Since CPI inflation in India is benign, the rate cutting cycle has more room to go with minimum two more rate cuts in 2025. Even though this will put the margins of the banks under some pressure, the leading names in the sector, particularly the large private banks, are well placed to deliver 12 to 15% returns in one year. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 During a consolidation phase, where the market moves within a range, buy on dips is the ideal strategy. And this strategy is working well now. 💼 With a lot of uncertainty in geopolitics, tariffs and trade, the market will continue to remain volatile. Therefore, investors may persist with the strategy of buying on dips. 💼 The concern in the market now is the high valuation, particularly in the broader market. But the trends in money flows into the market and the healthy trend of retail investors persisting with their investment for longer periods indicate that Indian equities will remain at higher valuations for an extended period of time. 💼 Since the MPC is expected to cut policy rate by 25 bp in the policy meet on 8th, rate sensitives are likely to be favoured in the coming days. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The market structure favours continuation of the ongoing consolidation phase. 💼There are global headwinds like renewed tariff concerns that will restrain a breakout rally. At the same time, there are domestic tailwinds that will support the market at lower levels. 💼 President Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium is a clear message that the tariff and trade scenario will continue to be uncertain and turbulent. This headwind will impact markets. 💼 On the domestic front, the tailwinds are getting stronger with the latest Q4 GDP growth data coming at 7.4%, which is much better-than-expected. 💼 Trends in consumption expenditure and capital expenditure are promising. This, along with low inflation and the expected continuation of the rate cutting policy, provides the perfect setting for sustained economic growth in FY26. 💼 The only challenge is the tepid earnings growth. 💼 If leading indicators suggest a recovery in earnings growth, there is a high probability of the market breaking out of the present range and moving higher. . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Stable institutional flows — both FII and DII — are keeping the market steady even in the absence of positive triggers. 💼 The ongoing consolidation phase is likely to continue in the near-term. 💼 Investors should understand two distinct big trends that will weigh on markets: One, India’s macros are strong and improving. Two, this positive trend in macros is not getting reflected in corporate earnings. This is the fundamental reason for the range-bound movement of the market. 💼 FY25 Nifty earnings growth was a pedestrian 5.5% and the projection for FY26 is around 10%. 💼 Valuation multiple of 21 for 10% earnings growth is certainly on the higher side. This will cap the upside to the Nifty until leading indicators suggest a recovery in earnings growth. 💼 At the same time, steadily improving macros like resilient GDP growth, down trending inflation and interest rates, and declining fiscal and current account deficits lay the foundation for a strong economy and earnings recovery in the medium term. 💼 Investors should remain invested and buy quality stocks on dips. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets