Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 The trend of strong US macros weakening emerging markets is continuing. 💼 The US 10-year bond yield has spiked to 4.67% on better-than-expected jobs numbers and indications of the services sector doing very well. 💼 This means the Fed may hold rates in January, leading to further strengthening of the dollar and rising bond yields. 💼 The fallout of this on the Indian macros is that the RBI may hold rates in February against the market expectation of a cut. 💼 In this macro setting, FIIs are likely to continue selling, putting pressure on the market. 💼 Large caps, despite fair valuations, may continue to be on the defensive. 💼 Investors can take a slightly long-term view of the market and buy large caps in financials, IT, pharmaceuticals, and select autos. These segments will bounce back in a few months when macros turn positive for India. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The 1.6% cut in Nifty yesterday appears to be an overreaction to the HMPV virus concerns. 💼 FII selling of Rs 2575 crores was overwhelmed by the DII buying of Rs 5750 crores. 💼 In spite of that, if Nifty corrected by 388 points, it means the correction was triggered by short selling by bears trying to exploit the negative sentiments. 💼 The resilience of the Pharma and healthcare stocks also indicates the influence of the virus concerns on the market. 💼 The fact that momentum stocks were on the back foot yesterday indicates a lack of confidence by the bulls in the context of negative sentiments. 💼 Clarification by the government that there is no room for undue concern from the virus, which is not new, can facilitate a rebound in the market, led by momentum stocks. 💼 Investors can use the dip to buy fundamentally strong beaten-down stocks in automobiles and financials. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The market is likely to be influenced by the negative factors impacting FII flows and some positive domestic factors which can support the market. 💼 The external macro construct continues to be unfavourable with the dollar index at 109 and the 10-year US bond yield at 4.62%. 💼 The FIIs are likely to continue selling till the yields decline and the dollar stabilises. 💼 Domestically, the December auto numbers indicate that the much-talked-about urban demand deceleration is exaggerated. 💼 Buying will resume in these resilient domestic segments, supporting the market on declines. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The uncanny ability of the market to surprise was evident in yesterday’s massive 445-point rally in Nifty. 💼 Even though FII buying helped in the rally, at Rs 1506 crores net buying, it was not good enough to trigger such a massive 1.8% rally in Nifty. 💼 Short covering in certain beaten-down, fundamentally strong stocks like the Bajaj Twins and sharp spurts in auto stocks, assisted by better-than-expected December sales numbers, contributed to the rally. 💼 Largecaps outperforming smallcaps is a positive signal and may continue. However, it is too early to conclude that FIIs will continue to buy. 💼 With the dollar index at 109.25 and the U.S. 10-year yield at 4.56%, the macro construct is not favourable for sustained FII buying. 💼 Impressive pick-up in deposit growth augurs well for banking stocks, which are fairly priced. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Leading indicators available so far do not indicate a pick-up in economic growth. 💼 GST collections for December have declined 2.97% MoM, indicating a continuation of the slowdown. Therefore, Q3 corporate earnings are unlikely to register a rebound. 💼 This means investors have to focus on segments which will buck the slowdown like IT, pharma, and to some extent, financials. 💼 Luxury consumption segments like hotels, jewellery, and aviation are also likely to post good results. 💼 FIIs are likely to continue with their selling strategy since the dollar remains strong, and U.S. bond yields are attractive enough for FIIs to ignore emerging markets in the near term. 💼 While DII buying can support the market at lower levels, it is not sufficient to take the market higher. 💼 For higher market levels, we will have to wait for indications of growth and earnings recovery. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The New Year begins on a sombre note for the Indian equity market. 💼 The near-term trend appears weak with the macro construct dominated by weak GDP and earnings growth. 💼 The headwinds from a strong dollar (dollar index at 108.5%) and high U.S. bond yields will impact the market through more FII selling, at least in the early days of 2025. 💼 Even though FII selling is matched by DII buying, in this tug of war, near-term sentiments are on the side of FIIs since valuations continue to be elevated and growth and earnings are yet to show signs of recovery. 💼 A trend reversal may happen if the Q3 corporate results indicate recovery in earnings. However, an across-the-board sharp recovery appears unlikely. 💼 Positive cues can come from a growth-stimulating Budget followed by a rate cut by the MPC in February. 💼 Investors should be cautious and watch for potentially market-moving macro data. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 December has been weak for equity markets globally, with S&P 500 down by 2.34% and Nifty down by 2.6%. 💼 Markets are preparing to move into the New Year with caution since uncertainty is high and valuations are stretched. 💼 The high U.S. bond yield and strong dollar will ensure that FIIs will continue to sell on every rise. 💼 DII buying will not be strong enough to take the market much higher. 💼 The fact is that even the DIIs and HNIs don’t have the conviction to accumulate stocks, except in certain pockets of fair value. 💼 Conviction to accumulate stocks will emerge only when macro indicators suggest recovery in growth and earnings. 💼 Watch out for the Q3 results starting from January 10th to identify companies reporting good numbers despite the growth slowdown. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 As investors leave 2024 behind and look forward to the New Year, there will be more concerns than confidence, at least in the early days of 2025. 💼 The biggest concern for stock markets globally is the uncertainty surrounding Trump 2.0. The concern is that since market valuations are high, any negative news might cause corrections. 💼 The resilience of the US economy continues to surprise. 💼 The lower-than-expected jobless claims have pushed the US 10-year bond yield to 4.62%. This will be a headwind for stock markets globally and particularly for emerging markets, where FIIs might continue to sell. 💼 A risk-free yield of 4.62% from the safest asset class in the world will continue to lure FIIs to sell in emerging markets like India and move the money to US bonds. 💼 In the recent market correction in India, IT and banking stocks have remained reasonably resilient, primarily due to their fair valuations. 💼 Investors should exercise caution as we move into the uncertainties of the New Year. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 As the nation pays homage to Manmohan Singh, the architect of liberalization in India, investors must be acknowledging with gratitude the wealth created by the Indian stock market after the initiation of liberalization in 1991. 💼 Sensex, which was around 1000 in 1991, has multiplied about 78 times since then to trade above 78,000 now, delivering excellent returns to long-term investors. 💼 The market will continue to deliver superior returns to investors in the years to come since the India Growth Story, which liberalization triggered, is very much intact. 💼 Meanwhile, short-term bumps on the economic growth path will cause corrections and market volatility, like what we are witnessing now. 💼 The strongest headwind for the market now is the FII selling triggered by a strong dollar (dollar index staying above 108) and attractive US bond yields, with the 10-year yielding 4.35%. 💼 A change in FII strategy from selling to buying will happen when macros indicate recovery in growth and corporate earnings. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets