Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 The near-term market trend indicates exhaustion and there are no clear positive triggers that can take the market to sustained new highs immediately. 💼 An important event coming up is the RBI meeting on 8th. But no positive triggers like a rate cut are likely from the RBI meeting. 💼The global market construct also is challenging with the 10-year bond yield rising again to 4.13% and the dollar index rising to 104.5. 💼The positive takeaway is that the U.S. economy is doing surprisingly well and a sharp global slowdown triggered by a possible US recession is very unlikely. This, along with declining inflation in US can support global equity markets. 💼Investors may wait and watch for new trends to emerge while remaining invested in this bull market. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼The global construct for equity markets continues to be good with the mother market US doing well aided by a surprisingly strong economy. 💼The latest data on job creation in January has again surprised with addition of 3,53,000 jobs. 💼There are no signs of the US economy tipping into mild recession any time soon. This means that the Fed rate cuts expected this year are likely to be back-loaded. 💼This has pushed up the 10-year bond yield again above 4% and the dollar index to 104. This might prompt some selling by FIIs. But the market momentum is good supported by strong DII and retail buying. 💼Among the recent results Tata Motors and Interglobe Aviation stand out and these stocks have more room to go up. RIL also is exhibiting strength. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼Now that the two big events are behind us the market is likely to consolidate. 💼The non-populist Budget focused on fiscal consolidation is a big positive. The big allocation for rural housing will benefit all construction-related segments like cement, steel, paints etc. 💼Another important budget takeaway is the sharp decline in bond yields consequent to the net market borrowing kept low at Rs 11.75 trillion. This is beneficial for banks. 💼Global cues are better since the mother market US is appreciating the favourable trends in the US economy after the brief disappointment with the cautious Fed message. 💼It is evident that the US is heading for a soft landing and rate cuts are coming. Correction in the dollar index to 103 and the US 10-year falling to 3.88% may restrain the FIIs from selling. 💼The near-term risk in the market is the high valuation which can trigger corrections on some negative news. Expect high volatility in the near-term. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼While both the Fed decision and the Budget will influence the market today, the focus will be on the Budget. 💼Even though the interim Budget is expected to be largely a vote on account with “no sensational announcements” the PM’s statement yesterday that it will be a ‘blueprint of intent’ has aroused expectations that there will be some significant indications of what is likely to come in the full Budget and beyond. This will keep the market focused on the Budget. 💼The 1.61% sell-off in the S&P 500 yesterday was on disappointment that rate cut will not happen in March. 💼But the Fed chief’s comment that the economy is doing well with 3.1% GDP growth in 2023, low 3.7% unemployment and consumer price inflation declining to 2.6% augurs well for the market, going forward. 💼Sectoral and stock-specific moves in response to budget proposals will hog the limelight today. 💼But long-term investors should not be carried by the dramatic moves today and may focus on high quality stocks with good long-term growth prospects. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼 The Fed decision tonight and the interim Budget tomorrow will weigh on markets in the near-term. 💼 Global markets will be keenly watching the Fed comment on the time line and quantum of rate cuts. 💼The first rate cut is likely to come in June 2024. The decline in the 10-year yield to 4.02% is a positive since it will restrain FPI outflows. 💼The domestic market will be focused on the interim Budget particularly on any proposals regarding taxation of investments relating to the capital market. 💼The fiscal deficit and its glide path also is important since growth with stability is hugely important from the market perspective. 💼Stock specific movements are likely in response to sectoral allocations in the Budget. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼It appears that the strong DII and retail support and the consequent resilience of the market is forcing FIIs to reduce their selling. 💼The Fed commentary on Wednesday will influence the US bond yields and consequently the FII strategy. 💼 Large caps like RIL, Bharti Airtel, L&T and ICICI have strength to support the market. 💼 In the near-term, expectations regarding the budget will influence the market. 💼 Market doesn’t expect any major changes in taxation relating to the capital market. 💼 Therefore, any such proposal will have an impact on the market. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼 Two important events are due this week: the interim Budget and the Fed meet on rate decision. But these events are unlikely to impact the market in a big way. 💼The Budget will be a vote on account without major announcements capable of impacting the market. 💼Regarding the Fed decision, no rate cut is expected, but the commentary will be keenly watched. 💼The turbulence in the Red Sea is turning out to be a serious issue. Brent crude has spiked to $83. 💼 Stock specific action in response to Q3 results and news is likely. LIC getting RBI approval to raise their stake in HDFC Bank is positive for the latter. 💼 Since FII selling is sustained and high the bears will use rallies to sell. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼 Since the tug of war between the FIIs and DIIs continues, volatility will remain high in the near-term. 💼 This volatility may be used by investors to churn their portfolios. 💼 A significant anomaly in the market is the high valuation in some pockets and the fair and even attractive valuation in some other pockets. 💼 For instance, some PSU stocks are flying high on hopes based on order flows. 💼 It will take a long time for these order flows like in ship building , for instance, to translate into profits. And there is no guarantee that it will happen. 💼 On the other hand pockets like banking are fairly valued and the performance and prospects are good. 💼 There is value in bluechips like HDFC Bank. The rising bond yields in US is a matter of concern. 💼 This rally in global stock markets was triggered by the Fed pivot which saw the 10-year bond yield falling from 5% to around 3.8%. 💼 Now the 10-year is back at 4.18% which indicates that the Fed rate cut will come only in H2 of 2024. 💼 A significant take away from the Q3 results is the improving margins of the auto industry. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼The important takeaway from yesterday’s sharp market correction is not the 1.54 % cut in Nifty but the crash in Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap indices by 3.15% and 2.87% respectively. 💼The valuations in the broader market had become excessive and unsustainable as pointed out many times recently. 💼The trigger for the correction came mainly from the sustained selling by FIIs who have sold equity worth Rs 27830 crores during the last 5 days. 💼Some news and rumours also contributed to the selling in the market. There is news that SEBI is tightening the ultimate beneficiary norms for FPIs starting February 1st. 💼This might have triggered some FPI selling. Also, there is a rumour floating around that the finance minister may tweak the LTCG tax taking away the advantages investors are enjoying now. Such rumours are normal during the Budget time. 💼Further selling by FPIs and more corrections in the broader market are likely. 💼Investors may wait for the market to stabilise. Safety now is in fairly priced large caps. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate