Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼There is no consistency in FII and DII behaviour so far this month. 💼They are doing alternative bouts of buying and selling which is restricting the market in a range. 💼The market needs triggers to break out or breakdown from this range. 💼A probable negative trigger can be a slightly hawkish statement from the Fed postponing the rate cuts which the market expects to begin by March 2023. 💼The US CPI inflation data due tonight will provide cues regarding this. 💼The Q3 results season starting today with the results of TCS and Infy will provide indications of the Nifty earnings for FY24. 💼Financials, capital goods, telecom, automobiles and hotels will post good numbers. IT results will be tepid and FMCG will be a mixed bag. 💼More than broad market action, market responses will be stock-specific in response to results and management commentary. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼The market is moving up and down without a directional trend. 💼Up moves are countered with selling and down moves are responded with buying. 💼A trend might emerge in the coming days in response to Q3 results. 💼There is an important dichotomy in the market which has implications for investors. 💼Segments like defence and railways have run up too much too fast based on expectations triggered by order inflows. 💼It will take time for these orders to be executed and reflect on the bottom lines. 💼On the other hand there is value in segments like banking, particularly in high quality private sector majors. 💼But this value is not getting reflected in the price. 💼This is a short-term aberration which will correct in the medium to long-term. Here patience is the key. 💼Q3 results starting tomorrow will be keenly watched. 💼Regarding IT the management commentary will be more important than the results which will be tepid. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate. #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼The 197 point decline in Nifty yesterday despite marginal buying by both FIIs and DIIs indicates strong build up of short positions in the market. 💼Long positions are steadily declining and short positions are building up. 💼This short build up is on bearish expectations that the present high valuations are difficult to sustain and some trigger may lead to sharp corrections. 💼This expectation need not be realised since global cues have again turned positive on rally in the US market. 💼Domestic cues are looking good. Buy on dips strategy may work again leading to some short covering. 💼Strong JLR numbers from Tata Motors and the attractive buy back offer from Bajaj Auto will give support to the Nifty Auto Index. 💼The real estate segment is doing well and the margin expansion happening in the industry bodes well for the sector. But most good news is in the price. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #marketupdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #marketupdate

💼The year-end rally which took the Nifty up by around 14 % from the 2023 October lows, is slowly running out of steam. 💼The major challenge for the rally comes from the mother market US which is showing signs of weakness. 💼The concern in the US now is that the market expectation of a rate cut in March may not materialise since the labour market continues to be tight and the unemployment data is lower than expected. 💼Inflation coming under control means that the rate hiking cycle is over and the Fed pivot is imminent. 💼But the market will be disappointed if the rate cut doesn’t happen in March. 💼The sign of this possible trend can be seen in the firming up of the 10-year US bond yield above 4%. 💼The exuberance of retail investors may be a positive factor which might push up the already frothy broader market. 💼But profit booking by DIIs and seasonally weak January can impact the rally. 💼Long-term investors can use dips in the market to buy high quality banking stocks which are fairly priced. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼An important feature of the ongoing rally in the market is that retail investors, not institutions, are calling the shots. 💼This retail exuberance is getting reflected in the records being set by the Mid and Smallcap indices even at frothy valuations in these segments. 💼The excessive valuations of the broader market cannot continue for long. 💼Big corrections are likely in the broader market; the only question is when. 💼The risk to the global rally can come from the Fed which may turn out to be less dovish than the market expectation. 💼Latest data from the US indicate an economy which is not weakening as much as the Fed would like. So watch out for the Fedspeak. 💼The Q3 results will impact stock prices. IT stocks have corrected anticipating poor numbers. 💼The result to watch would be that of HDFC Bank which has the potential to move the Bank index. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼A predictable market trend is that high valuations will lead to corrections. 💼The unpredictable part is the timing and the trigger for the correction. 💼In the last few days, globally markets are correcting and the trigger for the correction is profit booking, which is normal and rational. 💼Markets have a tendency to overreact. Perhaps the sharp rise in the US market in response to the Fed pivot was a bit overdone. 💼The marginal rise in the US bond yield is a reflection of the market concern regarding the timing of the expected Fed rate cut. 💼A good strategy now would be to move some money from the overpriced mid and small caps to the fairly- priced high quality large caps like the leading banking names. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼Market has turned highly volatile with profit booking triggered by high valuations. 💼Even DIIs who have been consistent buyers are booking profits. Buying on dips also is happening simultaneously. 💼This twin moves of profit booking and dip buying will keep the market highly volatile in the near-term. 💼An important trend in the market is the renewed buying in pharmaceuticals. 💼Further buying can be expected in this segment. 💼The Supreme Court judgement on the Adani- Hindenberg issue expected this morning will have a sentimental impact on the Adani stocks in particular and the overall market in general. 💼Long-term investors can buy the fairly-valued largecap private banking stocks which have the potential to outperform the Nifty this year. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼The 1000 point rally in the Nifty in the last one month has imparted momentum to the market. 💼Retail investors encouraged by the excellent returns of 2023 have turned exuberant and are chasing stocks, unmindful of the high valuations, particularly in the mid and small cap segments. 💼Investors should not fall into the trap of ‘recency bias’ and chase low grade stocks in the broader market. 💼Declining dollar and US bond yields provide a favourable global context for equities. 💼FII inflows in 2024 are likely to be huge and has the potential to lift high quality large-caps, particularly in segments like banking where valuations are fair. 💼An important trend to watch is the spike the volatility index VIX to 14.5 which indicates that high volatility is round the corner. 💼Yesterday’s sell off in the last 30 minutes is a warning that at higher levels there can be bouts of big selling. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #MarketUpdate

💼As the New Year begins it is a Goldilocks scenario for the economy and markets. 💼The growth momentum in the economy is strong. 7% GDP growth in FY 24 is likely to be followed by around 6.7% growth in FY25 with decent corporate earnings growth. 💼The banking system is in the pink of health and all macroeconomic indicators are stable. 💼Political stability after the General elections looks almost certain. 💼From the global perspective, the US economy appears to be heading for soft landing. 💼The US 10-year bond yield at 3.87 % and the dollar index at 100.6 are tailwinds for the market. 💼FPI inflows in 2024 are likely to be robust. 💼The concern, however, is that most of these good news is in the price; valuations are a bit stretched and above the long-term averages. 💼So, the market is vulnerable to corrections from presently unknown risks. 💼The broader market is overvalued; safety is in large-caps. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #marketupdate #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #marketupdate