Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼Two important factors that have been contributing to the ongoing bull market in India are the global rally and the sustained flows into the Indian market from retail investors. 💼These two factors continue to be in tact. 💼The US market is doing extremely well with the S&P 500 returning 17.6% YTD against Nifty’s 12.38% return YTD. 💼The flows into the market from retail investor continue unabated with SIP inflows touching Rs 21262 crores in June. 💼These positive trends can impart resilience to the market even though valuation comfort is low now. 💼However investors should be careful about the high level of speculative activity in the Smallcap space where operators are driving up the prices of many shares with low floating stock. 💼The inflation data in US expected on Thursday will determine the Fed action in September. 💼The disinflationary trend is US is likely to sustain enabling the Fed to cut rates in September. #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The market is exhibiting strength and is showing no signs of a sharp correction despite the high valuations. 💼A healthy trend in the market is that fundamentally strong largecaps are seeing buying. 💼The rising accumulation and delivery based buying in largecaps like RIL and ITC is a reflection of this healthy trend. 💼It appears that the market is waiting for triggers for a breakout from the present levels. 💼This trigger may come from the Q1 results starting this week. 💼If the management commentaries from the IT majors are positive, that can trigger an up move led by IT stocks. 💼Another trigger for a break out can come from the Budget to be presented on 23rd of this month. 💼Since the economy is in a sweet spot the finance minister is in a position to offer relief to the middle class through income tax reliefs while simultaneously moving firmly on the path of fiscal consolidation. 💼And if status quo is maintained on taxation of capital gains, the market is likely to give a thumps up to the Budget. #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Positive news flows can impart resilience to the market in the near-term. 💼The bullish undertone in the US market will be supported by the latest jobs data for June which has come weak, but better-than-expected at 2,06,000 jobs. 💼US unemployment climbing to 4.1% indicates an economy cooling slowly. 💼Disinflation and rising unemployment creates the ideal macro backdrop that can facilitate a rate cut by the Fed in September itself. 💼This is positive for global equity markets. 💼The market will respond to the Q1 results which will start flowing from this week onwards. 💼Financials have the potential to move up further in response to the expected good results. 💼IT is showing signs of improvement. Autos will continue to show improved results. 💼The FMCG segment which has been languishing with low volume growth is showing signs of mild recovery. 💼Watch out for this segment. #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼FIIs’ huge long position in the index derivatives and strong buying in the cash market can support the market in the near term. 💼An important trigger may come from the US jobs data expected today. 💼If the jobs data show loosening labour market and slowing economy, it can lead to rate cut by the Fed in September. So, watch out for this data. 💼At 80000 Sensex there is no valuation comfort in the market. 💼Investors should expect only moderate returns in the medium term at the present levels. 💼Long-term prospects are certainly bright and, therefore, investors can continue with systematic investment. 💼Asset allocation based on risk appetite should be the strategy at this juncture in the market. #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼In the near-term, the bullish undercurrent of the market has the potential to outweigh the high valuations. 💼The rally is now being led by the private largecap banking stocks whose valuations are fair even after the recent run up. 💼The big FII buying of Rs 5484 crores yesterday is largely due to the massive delivery based buying in banking stocks led by HDFC Bank. 💼This delivery based buying may sustain for a few more days imparting resilience to the market. 💼The FIIs with 3.78 lakh long contracts have taken a ‘u’ turn in their market approach from the big short contracts in early June. 💼Decline in the US 10-year bond yield to 4.35 % and the dollar index declining to 105.29 are positives for fund inflows. 💼Market will start responding to the Q1 results which will start flowing in from next week. 💼 Financials are set to post good numbers. 💼lCredit growth of Bajaj Finance is excellent and this augurs well for the stock. #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The focus of market activity today will be HDFC Bank which will continue its upward move factoring in the news of potentially increasing the weightage of the stock in the MSCI Index. 💼The delivery based buying in the stock witnessed in the last many days has the potential to continue for a few more days pushing the stock further up and imparting resilience to it. 💼 As the weightage of HDFC Bank in Nifty increases there will be more delivery based buying by ETFs and also active funds. 💼There can be a marginal negative impact on other high weightage stocks in the Nifty like RIL, TCS, Infosys and ICICI Bank. 💼The latest Fedspeak on US inflation is also positive news for equity markets globally. 💼Responding to the inflation print of 2.6% with zero month- on-month increase, Fed chief Powell yesterday made a dovish remark that US is on disinflationary path. 💼The Fed’s next rate action is likely to be a rate cut. 💼RBI also is likely to follow suit with a rate cut in the next policy meeting. #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Nifty has delivered 10.4% returns in the first half of 2024 on top of the 20% returns in 2023. These are impressive returns. 💼An important feature of this bull market which began after the COVID crash of March 2020 (Nifty at 7511) is that it has been devoid of any significant correction. 💼The only above 5% correction in the Nifty was on June 4th, in response to the election results. 💼But this was followed the very next day by a sharp recovery. 💼This one-way move in the market can be attributed to the successful ‘buy on dips’ strategy being followed by the domestic investors - both institutional and retail. 💼There is sustained flow of money into the market through mutual funds, particularly through SIPs. 💼So long as this market construct holds steady, the market will remain resilient. 💼 It is worth repeating that some stocks in the broader market have bubble valuations and, therefore, they are vulnerable to sharp correction. 💼The up move in the U.S. 10-year bond yield to 4.45% will invite selling by FIIs. But the domestic investors will be more than happy to absorb this. #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Despite high valuations the market is likely to remain resilient. 💼The healthy trend in the recent rally, which has pushed Nifty by 6.5% in June, is that it is being led by fundamentally strong largecaps like RIL, leading private sector banks and Bharti Airtel. 💼The high delivery based buying in largecaps is a strong trend that will impart resilience to the market. 💼The June auto numbers are likely to be tepid and, therefore, this segment will not witness much market action in the coming days. 💼The Q1 results of financials can turn out to be better than expected and this can sustain the rally in this segment. 💼IT numbers will be tepid but the market response will depend on the management commentary. 💼It is important to appreciate that the global support to the rally continues with the outperformance of the US market where the S&P 500 is up 14.4% YTD compared to 10.4% for the Nifty. 💼The US core CPE for May coming at 2.6% is good news for the bulls since it increases the possibility of rate cuts by the Fed this year. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The market momentum has the potential to take the Sensex to 80000 level. 💼The healthy trend in the recent rally is that it is driven by fundamentally strong largecaps like RIl, Bharti and the leading private sector banks. 💼 However, corrections can happen any time since the market is in the overbought zone and DIIs are booking profits. 💼It is interesting to note that in the tug-of-war between the FIIs and DIIs, the latter has emerged victorious whenever this happened during the last 3 years. 💼The elevated valuations in the market continue to be a concern. 💼But the market is not yet in bubble valuation territory. 💼The weak trend in the broader market is likely to continue. 💼Investors can consider booking partial profits in the mid and smallcaps and move the money to fixed income. #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets