Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼This Diwali is unlikely to see fireworks in the market. 💼India has been underperforming in October with Nifty down 5.7% when markets in US and Japan have delivered positive returns and China and Hong Kong have hugely outperformed. 💼India’s underperformance is driven by lofty valuations, relentless FII selling and concerns over slowing earnings growth. 💼In the near-term, this scenario is unlikely to change, reversing the trend decisively, even though mild pullbacks are possible. 💼A significant trend in the market is the strong stock-specific action. 💼Better-than-expected results are responded with sharp moves up to 20% a day while worse-than-expected results are met with around 15% correction. 💼This trend of strongly rewarding good results and punishing poor results equally strongly is a reflection of the focus on stock-specific action rather than focus on the benchmark indices and market as a whole. 💼Given the elevated valuations, and the possibility of continuing FII selling, stocks and sectors which have delivered good results and good guidance are likely to remain resilient. Investors should focus on these segments. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼A distinct change in the long-term market trend is discernible from the recent market movements. 💼The overarching trend that took the Nifty from the COVID low of 7511 in March 2020 to above 26200 in September 2024 has been the ‘buy on dips’ strategy that worked well consistently. 💼With the massive, sustained and unprecedented selling by the FIIs, which has touched Rs 98085 crores this month up to 24th, the buy on dips strategy is not working. 💼More important, the consensus downward revision in FY25 earnings estimate and the weak Q2 numbers have soured the sentiments to slightly bearish mode. 💼The positive factor is the sustained flows into mutual funds that is helping DIIs absorb the massive FII selling. 💼This can provide resilience to the otherwise weak market where even after the 7% correction there is no valuation comfort, except in pockets like largecap financials. 💼Growth stocks are likely to be more resilient in this market where value is hard to come by. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The major headwind that the market is facing now is the massive, unprecedented and sustained FII selling which has touched Rs 93088 crores through 23rd October, as per NSDL data. 💼The fundamental trigger for the FII outflows is the elevated valuations in India and the relatively cheap and attractive valuations in markets like China and Hong Kong. 💼The FII selling is getting aggravated by news of slowdown in corporate earnings. 💼Uptrend in the market is not compatible with downtrend in earnings growth and, therefore, the market is witnessing selling at every rise, turning the near-term market structure into ‘sell on rally.’ 💼Investors should be cautious at this juncture and refrain from chasing temporary rallies. 💼High quality financials and IT stocks can be bought on dips. 💼Digital stocks which continue to show acceleration in growth can be gradually accumulated on declines. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The ongoing trend of largecaps outperforming mid and smallcaps is likely to sustain, going forward. 💼FII selling and the countervailing trend of DII buying is likely to continue. 💼This will impart strength to largecap financials, particularly banking stocks like HDFC, ICICI, Axis and Kotak which are fairly valued in this market with elevated valuations. 💼Investors need not rush to buy the beaten down mid and smallcaps since there is more pain left in this segment where valuations continue to remain very high. 💼There can be individual cases of sharp rebounds in this segment. 💼Zomato’s Q2 results indicate continuing acceleration in revenue and profitability. This is a stock to watch. 💼In the coming days the market will be looking forward to the outcome of the US presidential elections and its possible impact on the market. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼When market valuations are at elevated levels some trigger will cause corrections, making the valuations reasonable and in tune with long-term averages. 💼This time the trigger for the correction has come from the sustained selling by FIIs which has reached Rs 88244 crores by 21st October, according to NSDL. 💼This record high FII sell figure didn’t impact the market severely because of the countervailing action of sustained DII buying. 💼The fact is that even after the correction triggered by the sustained FII selling Indian market valuations are higher than historical averages even though largecap valuations can be justified by their long-term growth prospects. 💼Since market sentiments continue to be negative a sharp and sustained recovery appears difficult even though a rebound can happen any time. 💼Financials will be relatively resilient in the present market setting. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼With the US markets setting new record highs, the global stock market rally appears intact. 💼The steady decline in crude and stability in the US bond yields impart resilience to the stock market despite the lingering tensions in the Middle East. 💼The hope raised by the Chinese stimulus and the cheap valuations of Chinese stocks have the potential to sustain the ‘Sell India, Buy China’ tactical trade for some more time. 💼This presents an opportunity for medium to long-term investors. Of the total FII AUM of $930 billion about 28% is financials which are facing the brunt of FII selling. 💼The sustained FII selling has rendered the valuations of financials attractive in an otherwise over-valued market. 💼More important, financials segment is doing well and is in the pink of health. 💼Q2 results of leading banking names like HDFC, Kotak and Axis indicate improving prospects. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The 6% correction in Nifty from the peak has made India an under-performer with only 13.83% return YTD in contrast to the 23.16% return in S&P 500 YTD. 💼The Hang Seng index with 23.16% return YTD has been the best performing market in recent weeks assisted by massive buying by FIIs. 💼The high valuations in India has been the main trigger for the sustained selling by FIIs, and recent developments like consensus downward revision of FY 25 earnings estimates to below 10% and Bajaj Auto’s concerns regarding weak demand during the festive season dampened the sentiments resulting in big selling in auto stocks. 💼Trends indicate that FII selling and DII buying is likely to continue. 💼A bounce back is likely in the next two or three days but it is unlikely to sustain since sentiments have turned weak. 💼Investors may wait and watch for the market to stabilise and slowly accumulate largecaps like leading private sector banks beaten down by FII selling. 💼ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank have the potential to give decent returns in the medium-term. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Dow reaching yet another record high and the resilience of the US economy coupled with impressive corporate earnings indicate the continuation of this bull rally in the mother market US. 💼With the Fed expected to continue the rate cut with another 25bp cut in the next policy meet, S&P 500 has the potential to move past the 6000 level bringing cheer to other equity markets. 💼In India the consolidation around Nifty 25000 level is likely to be extended with bouts of FII selling and DII buying. 💼The reemergence of outperformance of smallcaps driven by liquidity is again becoming a cause of concern. 💼Coming days will witness lots of stock-specific action in response to Q2 results. 💼Expect positive response to results of financials. IT stocks can be bought on dips. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The main force behind the ongoing global rally in stocks has been the steadily climbing US market. 💼The fact that S&P 500 made 46 new highs this year indicates the strength of this bull market led by the US. 💼The rally has the fundamental support of a strong US economy and decent corporate earnings growth. 💼Even though the Middle East geopolitics has been a dampener, it didn’t spike crude prices and, therefore, there is no threat to inflation which remains under control allowing the Fed to cut rates. 💼The consensus now is the soft landing scenario for the US economy and, this is the strong support to this bull market. 💼In India the main driver of the bull run has been the sustained domestic flows into the market which has been absorbing all the selling by FIIs. 💼The domestic flows will continue to support the market but elevated valuations will put a cap on the upside. 💼Nifty is likely to consolidate around 25000 level. Q2 earnings will be weak except in IT, banking and pockets of autos. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets