Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 Market will continue to be under pressure from the many strong headwinds. 💼 The blowout jobs data from the US with 2.56 lakh job creation in December against expectations of 1.65 lakh means the rate cut expectations in 2025 is now down to one. 💼 With unemployment in the US down to 4.1%, the economy doesn’t need any stimulus. 💼 This good economic news is turning out to be bad news for markets, which were discounting many rate cuts this year. 💼 For India, the Brent crude rising to $81 is a concern. However, the IIP data for November at 5.2% indicates that the economy is recovering from the slowdown in Q2. 💼 The strength of the US economy augurs well for IT stocks, which have been resilient even during weakness in the market. 💼 Pharma and healthcare stocks will be under less pressure since the demand situation is good. 💼 With the US 10-year bond yield above 4.7%, FIIs will continue to sell, offering opportunities for long-term investors to buy reasonably priced large-caps, particularly in banking. 💼 The broader market will continue to be under pressure. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 In the context of the looming uncertainty regarding President Trump’s likely actions, the market is unlikely to rally in the near term. 💼 Sustained FII selling, which touched Rs 7,170 crores yesterday, continues to put pressure on the market. 💼 With the results season underway, the market will witness significant stock-specific action in response to earnings. 💼 Results from TCS indicate that the IT sector will continue to remain resilient. 💼 Banking majors are expected to deliver good results, but FII selling may prevent the sector from performing as expected. 💼 Pharma and select auto stocks, such as Eicher, M&M, and Bajaj Auto, are potential outperformers in a weak market. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 So far in January, FIIs have sold equity worth Rs 10,419 crores. 💼 With the dollar index at 109 and the 10-year bond yield at 4.67%, FIIs are likely to continue their selling strategy, putting pressure on the market in the near term. 💼 With the Q3 results season starting today, there will be market reactions to results. 💼 The results of TCS will provide an indication of what is in store for the IT sector. 💼 The strength of the U.S. economy and the depreciation of the rupee will be tailwinds for the IT sector. 💼 Premium segments like hotels, jewellery, automobiles catering to the premium market, and airlines are likely to report good numbers. 💼 Expectations from President Trump’s policy decisions and the Indian Union Budget proposals will keep the market volatile in the coming days. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The trend of strong US macros weakening emerging markets is continuing. 💼 The US 10-year bond yield has spiked to 4.67% on better-than-expected jobs numbers and indications of the services sector doing very well. 💼 This means the Fed may hold rates in January, leading to further strengthening of the dollar and rising bond yields. 💼 The fallout of this on the Indian macros is that the RBI may hold rates in February against the market expectation of a cut. 💼 In this macro setting, FIIs are likely to continue selling, putting pressure on the market. 💼 Large caps, despite fair valuations, may continue to be on the defensive. 💼 Investors can take a slightly long-term view of the market and buy large caps in financials, IT, pharmaceuticals, and select autos. These segments will bounce back in a few months when macros turn positive for India. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The 1.6% cut in Nifty yesterday appears to be an overreaction to the HMPV virus concerns. 💼 FII selling of Rs 2575 crores was overwhelmed by the DII buying of Rs 5750 crores. 💼 In spite of that, if Nifty corrected by 388 points, it means the correction was triggered by short selling by bears trying to exploit the negative sentiments. 💼 The resilience of the Pharma and healthcare stocks also indicates the influence of the virus concerns on the market. 💼 The fact that momentum stocks were on the back foot yesterday indicates a lack of confidence by the bulls in the context of negative sentiments. 💼 Clarification by the government that there is no room for undue concern from the virus, which is not new, can facilitate a rebound in the market, led by momentum stocks. 💼 Investors can use the dip to buy fundamentally strong beaten-down stocks in automobiles and financials. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The market is likely to be influenced by the negative factors impacting FII flows and some positive domestic factors which can support the market. 💼 The external macro construct continues to be unfavourable with the dollar index at 109 and the 10-year US bond yield at 4.62%. 💼 The FIIs are likely to continue selling till the yields decline and the dollar stabilises. 💼 Domestically, the December auto numbers indicate that the much-talked-about urban demand deceleration is exaggerated. 💼 Buying will resume in these resilient domestic segments, supporting the market on declines. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The uncanny ability of the market to surprise was evident in yesterday’s massive 445-point rally in Nifty. 💼 Even though FII buying helped in the rally, at Rs 1506 crores net buying, it was not good enough to trigger such a massive 1.8% rally in Nifty. 💼 Short covering in certain beaten-down, fundamentally strong stocks like the Bajaj Twins and sharp spurts in auto stocks, assisted by better-than-expected December sales numbers, contributed to the rally. 💼 Largecaps outperforming smallcaps is a positive signal and may continue. However, it is too early to conclude that FIIs will continue to buy. 💼 With the dollar index at 109.25 and the U.S. 10-year yield at 4.56%, the macro construct is not favourable for sustained FII buying. 💼 Impressive pick-up in deposit growth augurs well for banking stocks, which are fairly priced. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Leading indicators available so far do not indicate a pick-up in economic growth. 💼 GST collections for December have declined 2.97% MoM, indicating a continuation of the slowdown. Therefore, Q3 corporate earnings are unlikely to register a rebound. 💼 This means investors have to focus on segments which will buck the slowdown like IT, pharma, and to some extent, financials. 💼 Luxury consumption segments like hotels, jewellery, and aviation are also likely to post good results. 💼 FIIs are likely to continue with their selling strategy since the dollar remains strong, and U.S. bond yields are attractive enough for FIIs to ignore emerging markets in the near term. 💼 While DII buying can support the market at lower levels, it is not sufficient to take the market higher. 💼 For higher market levels, we will have to wait for indications of growth and earnings recovery. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The New Year begins on a sombre note for the Indian equity market. 💼 The near-term trend appears weak with the macro construct dominated by weak GDP and earnings growth. 💼 The headwinds from a strong dollar (dollar index at 108.5%) and high U.S. bond yields will impact the market through more FII selling, at least in the early days of 2025. 💼 Even though FII selling is matched by DII buying, in this tug of war, near-term sentiments are on the side of FIIs since valuations continue to be elevated and growth and earnings are yet to show signs of recovery. 💼 A trend reversal may happen if the Q3 corporate results indicate recovery in earnings. However, an across-the-board sharp recovery appears unlikely. 💼 Positive cues can come from a growth-stimulating Budget followed by a rate cut by the MPC in February. 💼 Investors should be cautious and watch for potentially market-moving macro data. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets