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💼 As we near the Budget Day there are headwinds and tailwinds for the market. 💼 Geopolitical issues continue to plague global trade with continuous threats of tariff weaponisation by Trump. 💼 The spike in Brent crude to near $ 70 is a headwind for Indian macros in general and industries that use oil as inputs, in particular. 💼 However, these headwinds are likely to be countered by the positive message from the Economic Survey that projects GDP growth of 6.8 to 7.2% growth in FY 27. 💼 With 3.5% headline inflation, India is headed for around 10% nominal GDP growth in FY27. 💼 This has the potential to deliver 15 to 17% earnings growth in FY 27, imparting resilience to the market. 💼 The steady decline in FPI outflows during the last two days indicate a possible change in FPI strategy. 💼 Another significant trend is India’s success in diversification of its export market away from the US to other markets. 💼 From early 2027 onwards this trend will gain momentum with the India-EU trade deal getting implemented. 💼 Overall, at this juncture, tailwinds are stronger than headwinds and this is positive for markets in the medium to long-term. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

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💼 Nifty’s up move of 300 points during the last two days should be seen more as a temporary response in anticipation of the Budget to be presented on Sunday. 💼 Since the bears won’t risk going into the Budget with huge open short positions, they have covered some shorts and this has contributed to the 300 point rally in the Nifty. 💼 It is important to note that there is no change in the short to medium-term strategy of FIIs, which is ‘sell India’ and move the money to other performing markets. 💼 Therefore, unless there is some big announcement in the Budget nudging FIIs to return to India, they will continue to sell in India thereby dragging the market down. 💼 Markets can always surprise. 💼 Some positive news/event can trigger a rally in the market. 💼 There are rumours of a sudden announcement of a US-India trade deal. 💼 If that happens close on the heels of the path breaking India-EU-trade deal, that would be a major boost to Indian economy and corporate earnings in FY27, and therefore, the market will respond positively. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

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💼 The highly volatile market session yesterday reflected the tug of war between the FIIs and DIIs. 💼 The FIIs continued their selling spree with cash market selling of Rs 3068 crores. 💼 DIIs, flush with funds, aggressively bought beaten down fundamentally strong stocks for a massive Rs 8999 crores. 💼 A significant feature of the ongoing market construct is the huge short position created by the FIIs in index futures. 💼 This short position is being supported by sustained selling in the cash market. 💼 The logic behind the FII strategy is the relatively high valuation in India, the modest earnings growth and the continuing weakness in the rupee. 💼 DII buying is supported by fund flows and expectations of earnings recovery. 💼 Any news or event that triggers short covering can lead to a rally in the market. 💼 After the India-EU trade deal, which is a big long-term positive, investors are now focused on the Union Budget to be presented on Feb first. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

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💼 The underperformance of the Indian stock market and continued depreciation of the rupee have been conspicuous so far in 2026. 💼 Significantly, both are related. 💼 While many EM currencies have been strengthening since dollar has been weakening, the rupee has been weakening mainly due to FII outflows. 💼 This double whammy of currency depreciation and sustained FII selling have been weighing on the markets resulting in 4.2% decline in Nifty year till date. 💼 Fundamental support from improved Q3 earnings has not happened. 💼 But indications are that Q4 earnings are likely to improve. 💼 From a sentiments perspective the announcement regarding the EU-India FTA is a positive. 💼 But the FTA will become operational only from 2027 onwards and, therefore, from the fundamental perspective, the announcement is unlikely to be a trigger for a market rally. 💼 Meanwhile, the weaponisation of tariffs by the Trump administration continues with the announcement of tariffs on South Korea being raised from 15 % to 25%. 💼 This is yet another indication that the US-India trade agreement, which India badly needs, might hang fire for some more time, despite the talk of a “good deal with India” from Trump who has become totally inconsistent unreliable. 💼 The market has become a stock picker’s market since stocks are responding to Q3 results and management commentary. 💼 There are opportunities for investors to pick and choose stocks coming out with better-than-expected results and indications of sustained growth. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets