Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 The heightened uncertainty relating to Indo-Pak tensions will weigh on the markets. It is very difficult to judge how much the market has discounted. 💼 Going by the resilience of the market, it can be said that the market has not discounted a scenario of the tensions culminating in a war between the two countries. It is important to remember that markets have an uncanny ability to surprise by climbing many walls of worries. 💼 The major factor contributing to the resilience of the market is the sustained buying by FIIs, which has amounted to ₹32,465 crores in the last eight days. 💼 FIIs have turned sustained buyers in a dramatic reversal of their sustained selling strategy. This, in turn, is due to the relative underperformance of US stocks, US bonds, and the dollar. 💼 In an environment of a weakening US economy and depreciating dollar, FIIs may continue to buy, providing support to the market. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 There are tailwinds and headwinds for the market now. 💼 A strong tailwind is the sustained FII buying, which has touched a cumulative amount of ₹29,513 crores during the last 7 days. 💼 This is a total reversal of the momentum trade to US stocks when the dollar was strengthening. Since FII buying is likely to sustain, bears will restrain from shorting the market. 💼 Another tailwind is US Treasury Secretary Scot Bessent’s remark that “India is expected to strike the first bilateral trade deal with the US.” 💼 The US is also keen to strike as many deals as possible since China’s response to US initiatives has been indifferent. 💼 The resilience of the Indian economy can continue to support the market. 💼 The potential headwind looming large on the horizon is the uncertainty regarding India’s response to the terror attack and its consequences. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Nifty’s decoupling from the S&P 500 is striking. While the S&P 500 is down 8.4% YTD, Nifty is up 2.27% YTD. 💼 The resilience of the Indian economy, the expected slowdown in the US economy, the weakness in the dollar, and the steady FII buying in India of ₹21,263 crores in the last 6 days are contributing to the outperformance of India. However, the stretched valuations (Nifty is trading above 20 times estimated FY26 earnings) will constrain the rally. 💼 In the very short run, the market may respond to the results flowing in. However, going forward, the market will be concerned about the timing, nature, and magnitude of India’s response to the terror attacks and its consequences. Therefore, investors have to be cautious even while remaining invested. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Terror attacks, while succeeding in taking precious human lives, cannot succeed in even marginally impacting our economy and markets. 💼 Pakistan’s political instability and basket-case economy cannot do any damage to the Indian economy and markets. 💼 Markets may send this message today, and the fundamental factors are favourable. 💼 President Trump’s message that he has no intention of firing the Fed chief has calmed the US markets. 💼 Trump’s remarks on Chinese tariffs indicate that he might reduce the US-China tensions. 💼 The sustained buying by FIIs is a strong support to Indian markets. 💼 Technically, the market might move into an overbought territory soon, inviting some profit booking. 💼 Investors should remain invested in high-quality large caps. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 During normal times, the correlation between the US market, known as the mother market, and other markets is high. But these are abnormal times when the normal correlation need not hold. 💼 The US market was rattled yesterday on news of potential Trump-Powell tensions impacting the independence of the Fed. Markets abhor this. 💼 Powell has made it clear that he will be going by incoming data and the evolving outlook, which are now negative for the US economy. 💼 He also ruled out the possibility of a ‘Fed Put’ in a recent interview with Raghuram Rajan. Therefore, disagreement between the president and the Fed chief is likely to linger, resulting in some action from the mercurial president which can lead to legal battles. 💼 This period of uncertainty is likely to witness EMs like India decoupling from the US market. 💼 Investors can focus on fundamentally sound stocks. 💼 Bank Nifty is likely to remain resilient. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Even though the global economic scenario is mired in uncertainty, India appears relatively resilient. 💼 India is the only large economy which can grow at 6% even in a slowing global economy. This, along with the declining dollar, has the potential to attract more FPI inflows into India in the short run. 💼 The Q4 results of HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank have the potential to take Bank Nifty to an all-time high. 💼 The focus of the FIIs will be the domestic consumption themes like financials, telecom, aviation, hotels, select autos, real estate, cement, and healthcare. Growth stocks in the digital space also have the potential to move up. 💼 IT will continue to be under pressure since the growth outlook for the sector is bleak due to the expected sharp slowdown in the US economy. 💼 The possibility of India striking a deal with the US in the next few months is being perceived by the market as positive. Viewed from the perspective of the short-term market construct, it is Advantage India. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 India’s recent outperformance is striking. 💼 We are the only large market which has erased all losses incurred after April 2nd and has closed above the pre-April 2nd level. 💼 What accounts for this outperformance? 💼 One, India—which is a domestic consumption-driven economy—will be one of the least impacted by the tariff crisis. Two, the market is discounting the possibility of a bilateral trade agreement between the US and India within a few months. 💼 The US regards India as among the four allies (UK, Japan, South Korea, and India) with whom it will strike trade deals first. If this happens, India will benefit from the ongoing trade war between the US and China. 💼 Domestic consumption-driven stocks in financials, telecom, aviation, cement, and sections of autos are hitting 52-week highs and some are setting new records. This trend will continue. 💼 FIIs have turned buyers in India since the prospects of the US and China are the worst in this crisis. 💼 FIIs are likely to continue buying high-quality large caps in domestic consumption sectors. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The market construct appears positive after the Nifty recouping all the losses caused by April 2nd reciprocal tariffs. 💼 The market is indicating calm after the storm. But investors should not jump to the conclusion that stability has returned to the market and it is poised for further up moves. 💼 Since the trade war between the US and China is heating up after China’s latest decision to halt exports of rare earths and orders for Boeing, more actions, reactions, and volatility are on the cards. 💼 A significant takeaway from the recent market trend is the resilience of many domestic consumption bluechips. 💼 Stocks like Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Indigo Airlines, and Eicher Motors are at 52-week highs. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Bank are resilient while IT stocks are weak. 💼 The market is sending the message that domestic consumption themes will be safer than externally-linked segments during this chaotic global environment. . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 S&P 500 is up by 9% from the April lows, on the tariff pause. Since Nifty is up only 3% from the April lows, we have some catching up to do. 💼 This catching up and some short-covering will keep the market strong for the day. But investors have to understand that the uncertainty triggered by Trump is very much alive and, perhaps, more uncertainty is likely to come with sectoral tariffs, which Trump has declared are going to come. 💼 The Indian pharmaceutical sector may again come under pressure from this renewed threat. Even though the bond market has reined in Trump, who was on a rampage, he is unlikely to backtrack on tariffs. 💼 During this period of heightened uncertainty and potential volatility, it would be better for investors to focus on strong domestic consumption sectors like financials, telecom, aviation, hotels, hospitals, and selectively on autos. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets