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💼 The New Year begins on a sombre note for the Indian equity market. 💼 The near-term trend appears weak with the macro construct dominated by weak GDP and earnings growth. 💼 The headwinds from a strong dollar (dollar index at 108.5%) and high U.S. bond yields will impact the market through more FII selling, at least in the early days of 2025. 💼 Even though FII selling is matched by DII buying, in this tug of war, near-term sentiments are on the side of FIIs since valuations continue to be elevated and growth and earnings are yet to show signs of recovery. 💼 A trend reversal may happen if the Q3 corporate results indicate recovery in earnings. However, an across-the-board sharp recovery appears unlikely. 💼 Positive cues can come from a growth-stimulating Budget followed by a rate cut by the MPC in February. 💼 Investors should be cautious and watch for potentially market-moving macro data. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

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💼 December has been weak for equity markets globally, with S&P 500 down by 2.34% and Nifty down by 2.6%. 💼 Markets are preparing to move into the New Year with caution since uncertainty is high and valuations are stretched. 💼 The high U.S. bond yield and strong dollar will ensure that FIIs will continue to sell on every rise. 💼 DII buying will not be strong enough to take the market much higher. 💼 The fact is that even the DIIs and HNIs don’t have the conviction to accumulate stocks, except in certain pockets of fair value. 💼 Conviction to accumulate stocks will emerge only when macro indicators suggest recovery in growth and earnings. 💼 Watch out for the Q3 results starting from January 10th to identify companies reporting good numbers despite the growth slowdown. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 As investors leave 2024 behind and look forward to the New Year, there will be more concerns than confidence, at least in the early days of 2025. 💼 The biggest concern for stock markets globally is the uncertainty surrounding Trump 2.0. The concern is that since market valuations are high, any negative news might cause corrections. 💼 The resilience of the US economy continues to surprise. 💼 The lower-than-expected jobless claims have pushed the US 10-year bond yield to 4.62%. This will be a headwind for stock markets globally and particularly for emerging markets, where FIIs might continue to sell. 💼 A risk-free yield of 4.62% from the safest asset class in the world will continue to lure FIIs to sell in emerging markets like India and move the money to US bonds. 💼 In the recent market correction in India, IT and banking stocks have remained reasonably resilient, primarily due to their fair valuations. 💼 Investors should exercise caution as we move into the uncertainties of the New Year. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 As the nation pays homage to Manmohan Singh, the architect of liberalization in India, investors must be acknowledging with gratitude the wealth created by the Indian stock market after the initiation of liberalization in 1991. 💼 Sensex, which was around 1000 in 1991, has multiplied about 78 times since then to trade above 78,000 now, delivering excellent returns to long-term investors. 💼 The market will continue to deliver superior returns to investors in the years to come since the India Growth Story, which liberalization triggered, is very much intact. 💼 Meanwhile, short-term bumps on the economic growth path will cause corrections and market volatility, like what we are witnessing now. 💼 The strongest headwind for the market now is the FII selling triggered by a strong dollar (dollar index staying above 108) and attractive US bond yields, with the 10-year yielding 4.35%. 💼 A change in FII strategy from selling to buying will happen when macros indicate recovery in growth and corporate earnings. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 RBI’s latest projection of 6.8% GDP growth in Q3 FY25, based on trends in high-frequency data, is positive news. 💼 However, the downward revision of FY25 GDP growth to 6.4% from the initial projection of 7.2% reflects a poor assessment of the economy by the central bank. 💼 Realistically, this has to be followed up by a rate cut by the MPC in February. 💼 The economy also needs fiscal stimulus now to achieve a growth rate of 6.6% in FY26. 💼 Going forward, the market will be expecting both fiscal and monetary stimulus. 💼 These expectations can keep the market in a consolidation phase in the near term. 💼 The market reaction after the Budget and monetary policy will depend on the policy initiatives. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The relief rally witnessed yesterday is unlikely to have a free run in the coming days. 💼 Two sets of factors—external and internal—will restrain a sustained rally. 💼 Externally, the strong dollar and high bond yields in the US will prompt the FIIs to sell on rallies. 💼 Internally, the growth and earnings slowdown will be near-term negatives that will restrain the bulls. 💼 The high valuations in the market, in this challenging macro backdrop, cannot favor a PE expansion that can take the market significantly higher. 💼 Investors should prioritize safety over returns in the current context. 💼 Fairly valued segments like large-cap financials, sectors like pharma and IT with stable demand, and fast-growing segments like digital stocks are likely to remain relatively resilient in a challenging environment. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The FII buying witnessed in early December completely reversed last week, with FII selling of Rs 15,826 crores. 💼 The out-performance of the US (S&P 500 up 25% YTD) and the relative under-performance of India (Nifty up 14.64% YTD) are driving this change in FII strategy. 💼 The strength of the US economy, robust US corporate earnings, expectation of corporate tax cuts by President Trump soon after assuming office, and the steady appreciation in the US dollar are factors favorable to the US market. 💼 Slowdown in Q2 GDP growth and stagnation in corporate earnings in India have soured domestic market sentiments. 💼 In the short run, there will be market rebounds, which may be followed by renewed FII selling. 💼 A sustained rally is possible only when there are indications of a growth revival in the economy, which is likely in early 2025. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The FII buying witnessed in early December is getting reversed now, with this week’s selling reaching Rs 12,229 crores. 💼 This change in FII strategy is getting reflected in market trends, too, with largecaps, particularly financials, coming under pressure due to FII selling. 💼 This trend is unlikely to sustain, and, therefore, retail investors can adopt a strategy opposite to the FII strategy. 💼 Quality largecaps will soon bounce back. 💼 Pharmaceuticals have been resilient despite market weakness, and this trend can sustain. 💼 IT is likely to be strong in the near term, buoyed by the positive Accenture results and guidance. 💼 Gen AI is becoming a profit pool for IT companies. 💼 The negative response to the Fed’s commentary yesterday will be temporary. 💼 Recovery led by largecaps is possible in the near term. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets