💼 Macro indicators from the US suggest that as the swearing-in of Mr. Trump nears, the Trump trade has peaked.
💼 The decline in US bond yields and the dollar index are indications of this. This downshift in the dollar index and bond yields has been assisted by the lower-than-expected CPI inflation in the US, reigniting hopes of more rate cuts by the Fed this year.
💼 Hope of an end to the conflict in Gaza is another major relief. This global backdrop is positive for the market.
💼 A relief rally in India is certainly on the cards, but the sustainability of the rally will depend on the Indian macros, particularly the revival of GDP and earnings growth.
💼 Budget expectations can aid a rally in the market, but it will soon give way to the trends in GDP and earnings growth.
💼 Investors should focus on large caps, which have been more stable than mid and small caps.
💼 Broadly speaking, segments with growth visibility like Pharma and health care, IT, and discretionary consumption will remain resilient.
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Posted on : 16 Jan 2025 10:39 AM