Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 Under normal circumstances, on a day like this, the market would have suffered deep cuts. But this is unlikely due to two reasons. 💼 One, the conflict, so far, has demonstrated India’s clear superiority in conventional warfare, and, therefore, further escalation of the conflict will inflict huge damage to Pakistan. Two, the market is inherently resilient supported by global and domestic macros. 💼 Weak dollar and potentially weakening US and Chinese economies are good for the Indian market. 💼 The domestic macros construct is further rendered stronger by the high GDP growth expected this year and the declining interest rate environment. These are the reasons why FIIs have been on a buying spree in the Indian market during the last sixteen trading sessions. 💼 Investors should not panic and exit from the market now. 💼 Remain invested, monitor the developments and wait for the dust to settle. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Uncertainty regarding the extent of an expected face-saving response from Pakistan to India’s Operation Sindoor will weigh on markets. 💼 From the market perspective, it is important that the conflict should not escalate. 💼 An escalation, apart from other fallouts, will also impact India’s fiscal consolidation drive. If the MPC is to continue with rate cuts, fiscal consolidation is important. 💼 The Fed chief Jerome Powell’s observation yesterday that “risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen” and that “we think we can be patient” is a clear message that the Fed chief will not accommodate President Trump’s demand for rate cuts. 💼 The Fed’s action will be data dependent. 💼 A US-UK trade deal appears likely today, and this can be seen as the beginning of trade deals between US and other countries. 💼 In the current context of uncertainty investors may wait and watch the developments on the India-Pak tensions. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 What stands out in “Operation Sindoor” from the market perspective is its focused and non-escalatory nature. 💼 We have to wait and watch how the enemy reacts to these precision strikes by India. 💼 The market is unlikely to be impacted by the retaliatory strike by India since that was known and discounted by the market. 💼 The main catalyst of the market resilience in India is the sustained FII buying of the last 14 trading days which has touched a cumulative figure of Rs 43940 crores in the cash market. 💼 FIIs are focused on the global macros like weak dollar, slower growth in US and China in 2025 and India’s potential outperformance in growth. This can keep the market resilient. However, investors have to watch the developments on the border. 💼 The big shift in market preference in favour of largecaps away from overvalued segments of mid and smallcaps is significant. 💼 FIIs, as always, are mainly buying largecaps. This trend can continue. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Sustained FII buying for the 13th day in a row, supported by a weak dollar, has imparted resilience and support to the market despite the India-Pak tensions. This resilience is further reinforced by tailwinds in the form of soft crude, declining inflation, and the RBI’s cheap money policy of rate cuts and abundant liquidity injection. 💼 These tailwinds have the potential to facilitate high GDP growth and improving corporate earnings in FY26. And the market is likely to discount this by moving to new highs. But the uncertainty regarding the India-Pak tensions will keep the market range-bound in the near term. 💼 Large cap IT has bottomed out. 💼 Large cap private sector banking stocks will remain resilient despite the recent run-up. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The reversal in FII strategy in India from selling to buying continued for the week ending 2nd May. 💼 During the first three months of 2025, FIIs have been big sellers through the exchanges. Cumulatively, FIIs sold equity for ₹1,29,680 crores during this 3-month period. 💼 During the last 12 trading days, FIIs have been sustained buyers in the cash market, having bought equities for ₹40,145 crores cumulatively. This is a major pivot in FII strategy, and this will impart resilience to the market. 💼 The concern now is India’s retaliatory action to the terrorist strike and its fallout. This concern will restrict the FII-led rally. 💼 The steep decline in the Dollar Index from 111 on 11th January to 99 recently continues to be a strong tailwind for the market. 💼 The outperformance of the largecaps over the broader market is a healthy trend that is playing out now. This trend can sustain. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 After the sharp market correction triggered by Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the Pahalgam terror strikes, April has closed with above 4% gains in Nifty. This surprising resilience of the market has been primarily driven by the sustained FII buying for eleven trading days in a row, taking the cumulative FII buying for this period to ₹37,375 crores. 💼 FII buying has been driven by weakness in the dollar and declining growth prospects in the US. Other macros like declining interest rates in India, decline in the crude price, and green shoots of pick-up in demand are positives for the market. 💼 The high probability of India, among the five ‘allies’ of the US, entering into early trade deals with the US is also a significant positive factor. However, at the current juncture of high valuations (Nifty trading at above 20 times estimated FY26 earnings) and high India-Pak tensions, the near-term risk-reward is not in favour of high reward. Therefore, investors can play it safe by increasing the cash component in the portfolio even while remaining invested. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The surprising resilience of the market is significant. After the reciprocal tariff tantrums and the heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, Nifty is up 5% in April. This underscores the importance of not panicking during a crisis. It is important to remain invested. 💼 The crucial support to the market is coming from the sustained FII inflows, which have touched a cumulative figure of ₹37,325 crores in the last 10 trading sessions. 💼 The weakness of the dollar and India’s economic resilience are supporting this FII’s India trade. This can continue. However, investors should exercise caution. 💼 Since markets have rewarded patience and many stocks have appreciated handsomely, investors can do partial profit booking and increase the cash component in their portfolio. This strategy should be as a measure of abundant caution. 💼 There are unknown unknowns in the market now. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The Sensex did a Vaibhav Suryavanshi yesterday with a 1005-point spectacular rally amidst the heightened tensions at the border. 💼 What message is the market sending? The market has discounted, as everyone else has, that there will be an appropriate response from India to the terrorist attacks, but the market hopes that tensions will not lead to a war which can have very bad consequences. 💼 The strong pillar of support for the market now is the sustained FII buying for nine days in a row for a cumulative amount of ₹34,940 crores. 💼 India’s potential relative outperformance compared to other large economies can support the FII inflows and impart resilience to the market. 💼 The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remark yesterday that “I would guess that India would be one of the first trade deals we would sign” is a big positive for India. However, investors should exercise caution in the near term in the context of the high uncertainty regarding the fallout from the border tensions. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The heightened uncertainty relating to Indo-Pak tensions will weigh on the markets. It is very difficult to judge how much the market has discounted. 💼 Going by the resilience of the market, it can be said that the market has not discounted a scenario of the tensions culminating in a war between the two countries. It is important to remember that markets have an uncanny ability to surprise by climbing many walls of worries. 💼 The major factor contributing to the resilience of the market is the sustained buying by FIIs, which has amounted to ₹32,465 crores in the last eight days. 💼 FIIs have turned sustained buyers in a dramatic reversal of their sustained selling strategy. This, in turn, is due to the relative underperformance of US stocks, US bonds, and the dollar. 💼 In an environment of a weakening US economy and depreciating dollar, FIIs may continue to buy, providing support to the market. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets