Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 As investors leave 2024 behind and look forward to the New Year, there will be more concerns than confidence, at least in the early days of 2025. 💼 The biggest concern for stock markets globally is the uncertainty surrounding Trump 2.0. The concern is that since market valuations are high, any negative news might cause corrections. 💼 The resilience of the US economy continues to surprise. 💼 The lower-than-expected jobless claims have pushed the US 10-year bond yield to 4.62%. This will be a headwind for stock markets globally and particularly for emerging markets, where FIIs might continue to sell. 💼 A risk-free yield of 4.62% from the safest asset class in the world will continue to lure FIIs to sell in emerging markets like India and move the money to US bonds. 💼 In the recent market correction in India, IT and banking stocks have remained reasonably resilient, primarily due to their fair valuations. 💼 Investors should exercise caution as we move into the uncertainties of the New Year. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 As the nation pays homage to Manmohan Singh, the architect of liberalization in India, investors must be acknowledging with gratitude the wealth created by the Indian stock market after the initiation of liberalization in 1991. 💼 Sensex, which was around 1000 in 1991, has multiplied about 78 times since then to trade above 78,000 now, delivering excellent returns to long-term investors. 💼 The market will continue to deliver superior returns to investors in the years to come since the India Growth Story, which liberalization triggered, is very much intact. 💼 Meanwhile, short-term bumps on the economic growth path will cause corrections and market volatility, like what we are witnessing now. 💼 The strongest headwind for the market now is the FII selling triggered by a strong dollar (dollar index staying above 108) and attractive US bond yields, with the 10-year yielding 4.35%. 💼 A change in FII strategy from selling to buying will happen when macros indicate recovery in growth and corporate earnings. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 RBI’s latest projection of 6.8% GDP growth in Q3 FY25, based on trends in high-frequency data, is positive news. 💼 However, the downward revision of FY25 GDP growth to 6.4% from the initial projection of 7.2% reflects a poor assessment of the economy by the central bank. 💼 Realistically, this has to be followed up by a rate cut by the MPC in February. 💼 The economy also needs fiscal stimulus now to achieve a growth rate of 6.6% in FY26. 💼 Going forward, the market will be expecting both fiscal and monetary stimulus. 💼 These expectations can keep the market in a consolidation phase in the near term. 💼 The market reaction after the Budget and monetary policy will depend on the policy initiatives. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The relief rally witnessed yesterday is unlikely to have a free run in the coming days. 💼 Two sets of factors—external and internal—will restrain a sustained rally. 💼 Externally, the strong dollar and high bond yields in the US will prompt the FIIs to sell on rallies. 💼 Internally, the growth and earnings slowdown will be near-term negatives that will restrain the bulls. 💼 The high valuations in the market, in this challenging macro backdrop, cannot favor a PE expansion that can take the market significantly higher. 💼 Investors should prioritize safety over returns in the current context. 💼 Fairly valued segments like large-cap financials, sectors like pharma and IT with stable demand, and fast-growing segments like digital stocks are likely to remain relatively resilient in a challenging environment. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The FII buying witnessed in early December completely reversed last week, with FII selling of Rs 15,826 crores. 💼 The out-performance of the US (S&P 500 up 25% YTD) and the relative under-performance of India (Nifty up 14.64% YTD) are driving this change in FII strategy. 💼 The strength of the US economy, robust US corporate earnings, expectation of corporate tax cuts by President Trump soon after assuming office, and the steady appreciation in the US dollar are factors favorable to the US market. 💼 Slowdown in Q2 GDP growth and stagnation in corporate earnings in India have soured domestic market sentiments. 💼 In the short run, there will be market rebounds, which may be followed by renewed FII selling. 💼 A sustained rally is possible only when there are indications of a growth revival in the economy, which is likely in early 2025. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The FII buying witnessed in early December is getting reversed now, with this week’s selling reaching Rs 12,229 crores. 💼 This change in FII strategy is getting reflected in market trends, too, with largecaps, particularly financials, coming under pressure due to FII selling. 💼 This trend is unlikely to sustain, and, therefore, retail investors can adopt a strategy opposite to the FII strategy. 💼 Quality largecaps will soon bounce back. 💼 Pharmaceuticals have been resilient despite market weakness, and this trend can sustain. 💼 IT is likely to be strong in the near term, buoyed by the positive Accenture results and guidance. 💼 Gen AI is becoming a profit pool for IT companies. 💼 The negative response to the Fed’s commentary yesterday will be temporary. 💼 Recovery led by largecaps is possible in the near term. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 When valuations are high, the market needs only a trigger to correct sharply, and this trigger was provided by the Fed guidance of fewer rate cuts in 2025, which went against market expectations. 💼 Even though the rate cut of 25 bp was in tune with the market’s expectation, the indication of only two cuts of 25 bp each in 2025, against the market expectation of three or even four cuts, spooked the market, resulting in a sharp sell-off in Wall Street. 💼 The Fed chief’s comments regarding the economy and the labour market are, in fact, positive, suggesting a resilient US economy. But always, the market gets spooked when the reality falls short of expectations. 💼 The dollar index rising above 108 and the 10-year bond yield spiking to 4.52% are clearly negatives from the perspective of FII fund flows, but this is likely to be only temporary. 💼 Sharp cuts in the market today will provide opportunities for investors to buy. 💼 The broader market will be impacted less despite high valuations since the FII impact will be negligible in this segment. Therefore, there can be a sharp bounce back in growth stocks in this segment. 💼 Long-term investors, who can ignore short-term gyrations, should focus on fairly valued large-caps, which will provide buying opportunities for investors who are prepared to wait. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The near-term market construct has turned weak with FIIs turning sellers on rallies. 💼 The trend of FII buying in early December has proved to be, as feared, a flash in the pan. 💼 Yesterday’s massive FII sell figure of Rs 6410 crores in the cash market indicates that more selling is in store on market bounces. 💼 The underlying reason for the FII selling in India is the outperformance of the US market and the underperformance of India. 💼 While the S&P 500 is up 27.5% YTD, Nifty is up only 12% YTD, and the fear is that this huge variation in relative performances may continue, given the strength of the US economy and the weakness in the Indian economy. 💼 The situation will change if leading indicators in India suggest recovery in GDP growth and corporate earnings in Q3. 💼 The focus of global markets today will be the Fed decision expected tonight. 💼 A 25 bp rate cut is priced-in by the market, so the attention will be on the Fed commentary. 💼 A significant trend in the Indian market is the outperformance of the broader market, where good results are getting appreciated by the market and there is no concern of FII selling. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Globally, markets will be looking forward to the FOMC outcome on Wednesday. 💼 Markets have already discounted a 25bp rate cut, and, therefore, the focus will be on the Fed chief’s commentary. 💼 Any departure from a dovish commentary will be a negative from the market perspective, though this is only a remote possibility. 💼 The US services PMI coming strong at 58.5% indicates a resilient economy, which augurs well for the market. 💼 The sharp spike in India’s trade deficit to $37.8 billion in November will put pressure on the rupee, pushing it towards 85 to the dollar. 💼 Exporters like IT and pharma will benefit from the depreciating rupee, while for importers, the import cost will increase, impacting their stock prices. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets