Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 When valuations are high, the market needs only a trigger to correct sharply, and this trigger was provided by the Fed guidance of fewer rate cuts in 2025, which went against market expectations. 💼 Even though the rate cut of 25 bp was in tune with the market’s expectation, the indication of only two cuts of 25 bp each in 2025, against the market expectation of three or even four cuts, spooked the market, resulting in a sharp sell-off in Wall Street. 💼 The Fed chief’s comments regarding the economy and the labour market are, in fact, positive, suggesting a resilient US economy. But always, the market gets spooked when the reality falls short of expectations. 💼 The dollar index rising above 108 and the 10-year bond yield spiking to 4.52% are clearly negatives from the perspective of FII fund flows, but this is likely to be only temporary. 💼 Sharp cuts in the market today will provide opportunities for investors to buy. 💼 The broader market will be impacted less despite high valuations since the FII impact will be negligible in this segment. Therefore, there can be a sharp bounce back in growth stocks in this segment. 💼 Long-term investors, who can ignore short-term gyrations, should focus on fairly valued large-caps, which will provide buying opportunities for investors who are prepared to wait. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The near-term market construct has turned weak with FIIs turning sellers on rallies. 💼 The trend of FII buying in early December has proved to be, as feared, a flash in the pan. 💼 Yesterday’s massive FII sell figure of Rs 6410 crores in the cash market indicates that more selling is in store on market bounces. 💼 The underlying reason for the FII selling in India is the outperformance of the US market and the underperformance of India. 💼 While the S&P 500 is up 27.5% YTD, Nifty is up only 12% YTD, and the fear is that this huge variation in relative performances may continue, given the strength of the US economy and the weakness in the Indian economy. 💼 The situation will change if leading indicators in India suggest recovery in GDP growth and corporate earnings in Q3. 💼 The focus of global markets today will be the Fed decision expected tonight. 💼 A 25 bp rate cut is priced-in by the market, so the attention will be on the Fed commentary. 💼 A significant trend in the Indian market is the outperformance of the broader market, where good results are getting appreciated by the market and there is no concern of FII selling. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Globally, markets will be looking forward to the FOMC outcome on Wednesday. 💼 Markets have already discounted a 25bp rate cut, and, therefore, the focus will be on the Fed chief’s commentary. 💼 Any departure from a dovish commentary will be a negative from the market perspective, though this is only a remote possibility. 💼 The US services PMI coming strong at 58.5% indicates a resilient economy, which augurs well for the market. 💼 The sharp spike in India’s trade deficit to $37.8 billion in November will put pressure on the rupee, pushing it towards 85 to the dollar. 💼 Exporters like IT and pharma will benefit from the depreciating rupee, while for importers, the import cost will increase, impacting their stock prices. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The excessive volatility witnessed on Friday reflects the sharp differences in perceptions about the near-term market trend. 💼 The huge positions in F&O segments are causing such heightened volatility in the market. 💼 The 500-point move in the Nifty from the day’s trough to the peak indicates massive short covering. 💼 While FIIs turning buyers in December, so far, after the relentless selling in the previous two months is a positive, investors should not assume that the FIIs will continue to buy. 💼 Strong dollar and high bond yields in the US are headwinds for capital flows. 💼 Slowdown in GDP growth and stagnant earnings growth are hurdles in the path of the bull. 💼 A rally will sustain only if the data regarding growth and earnings show recovery, which will take some time. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 In the near term, the market has both a headwind and a tailwind. 💼 The headwind is the resumption of selling by the FIIs, who sold stocks for Rs 3560 crores yesterday. 💼 Given the high valuations in India, FIIs are likely to sell more at every market rise, as selling has been profitable for FIIs due to the appreciating dollar after the US election. 💼 The tailwind that can support the market is the declining inflation, with November CPI inflation at 5.48% coming within the RBI’s tolerance limit. 💼 If this trend continues, it can pave the way for a rate cut by the MPC in February. 💼 However, the rising dollar is a concern since it can lead to imported inflation. 💼 Nifty is unlikely to break from the range of 24500–24850, with buying emerging at the lower end of the band and selling resuming at the higher end. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The range-bound consolidation construct of the market is set to continue. 💼 The bull run in the US is continuing unabated, with Nasdaq setting a new record and closing above 20000 yesterday. 💼 The Magnificent Seven stocks continue their resilience and uptrend despite elevated valuations. 💼 The strength of the mother market, which indicates that the global market rally is intact, is a support for other markets, too. 💼 Even though the US CPI inflation in November at 2.7% has come a bit above the October numbers, this was on expected lines, and, therefore, the expectation of a 25bp rate cut by the Fed is intact. 💼 In India, the November CPI numbers to be released today will be keenly watched. 💼 Market action today will be largely stock-specific with limited moves at the index level. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Nifty is in a consolidation range and is likely to remain in this consolidation phase with a mild upward bias in the near term. 💼 The biggest positive for the market is the return of the FIIs and the consequent strength in the largecaps, particularly in banking and IT. 💼 FIIs turning buyers have enthused the retail investors who have been on the defensive after the near 10% correction from the September peak. Now retail investors are back in action and are chasing many mid and smallcaps. 💼 Mid and Smallcap indices have again turned resilient, supported by sustained fund flows in these segments. 💼 Valuations in these segments are hard to justify, but the resilience of these segments might continue, given the strong fund flows into these segments. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Market is likely to move in a narrow consolidation pattern in the near-term. 💼 There are no major triggers that can push the market into a new bull orbit. Also, there are no major triggers that can cause a deep correction from the current levels. 💼 Within the range, there are significant down moves and up moves. 💼 FMCG stocks are facing selling pressure due to the tepid growth phase they are going through. Conversely, financials are resilient and moving up on good prospects and attractive valuations. 💼 Since markets have a tendency to overreact, the present weakness in FMCG stocks will give opportunities for investors to accumulate them for the long-term. 💼 If there is further correction in this segment, some of the bluechips will become attractive buys. 💼 The resilience of banking and IT stocks is likely to continue for some more time since there are tailwinds that can support their up move. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The near-term trend of the market is mildly bullish. 💼 The leadership for the rally, which has taken the Nifty up by 3.2% during the last fortnight, has come from the leading banks, which are even now fairly valued and have the potential to take the market forward. 💼 The return of the FIIs is another positive, which augurs well for the largecaps. 💼 The ongoing rally can take the Nifty Bank to new record highs, lifting the Nifty further up. 💼 However, the sustainability of the rally is doubtful since the slowing Indian economy will constrain the bulls, and the FIIs may again turn sellers since there is no valuation comfort in the market. 💼 The momentum in the US market is robust, and in such a scenario, the bulls cannot be overly optimistic. 💼 Rate cut by the Fed this month is now a foregone conclusion, and this will keep the equity markets positive. 💼 The medium to long-term trend of the market is uncertain. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets