Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 The strength of the US market with S&P 500 setting yet another record high and the 10-year US bond yield remaining strong around 4.65% will continue to weigh on the Indian market. 💼 FIIs will continue to sell, putting pressure on largecaps like banking. 💼 The irrationality in the market, characterised by fair and even low valuations for largecaps like banking and excessive valuations in the broader market, will have to reverse at some point of time. But we don’t know when that will happen. 💼 The Q3 results of IT companies and the management commentary indicating improving prospects for the sector suggest that the sector is a safe bet now. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 There are two trends in the market that deserve attention: 💼 One, the institutional activity is showing a consistent trend - sustained selling by FIIs and sustained buying by DIIs. 💼 Two, there is a trend towards quality - largecaps are resilient while the broader market is weakening. 💼 These two trends are likely to continue in the near-term. 💼 Since the dollar index and US bond yields continue to remain high, FIIs are unlikely to turn buyers any time soon. 💼 This will cap a rally in the market even though the market is in an oversold zone. 💼 Largecap financials, IT, and pharma can continue to support the market on declines. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 President Trump’s orders and announcements, so far, have been disruptive. 💼 He is doing tough talking initially to send the message that more stern measures are in the offing. 💼 Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS if they attempt dedollarisation is a repeat of his election campaign rhetoric. 💼 It appears that the markets took this threat too seriously. 💼 Nifty is down around 12% from the 2024 September highs. 💼 The correction provides a good opportunity for long-term investors to buy quality stocks, which are now available at fair valuations. 💼 The key to success will be patience. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Trump 2.0 has kicked off without much clarity on Trump’s likely economic decisions. 💼 In his inaugural address, he was clear on immigration but sounded vague on tariffs. 💼 The indication of a likely 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico suggests that the tariff hike policy will be implemented gradually. 💼 The currency market has reacted with a cut in the dollar index to 108.43 and the 10-year bond yield has declined to 4.54%. 💼 This is the classic case of ‘buy on rumours and sell on news.’ 💼 It is likely that further delays in tariff hikes will weaken the dollar and bring down the bond yields. If this happens, it will be good for emerging markets like India. 💼 But if the FII flows to India are to turn positive consistently, we will have to see a pickup in India’s GDP growth and corporate earnings. That’s the crucial macro data to watch. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Globally, stock markets will be in a wait-and-watch mode as Trump 2.0 unfolds today. 💼 Many executive actions, particularly on immigration, are expected from the President starting from day one. 💼 Markets will wait and watch for the nature of the decisions and their likely impact. 💼 Trump had announced that he had a ‘very good’ telephone call with the Chinese President Xi Jinping and that the outcome is positive. 💼 This indicates that initially Trump would go slow on tariffs and would prefer to negotiate. 💼 The latest IMF report on Global Economic Outlook projects ‘solid’ growth of 6.5% for 2025 and 2026 for India despite the recent deceleration in growth. This is positive. 💼 There is a flurry of Q3 results this week, and the market will respond to the results depending on, apart from the numbers, the outlook and management commentary. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 There are two positives for the market today: One, the declining trend in the dollar index and the US bond yields continues. 💼 Second, the Q3 results from the big boys, RIL and Infosys, are better-than-expected. 💼 These two stocks have the potential to lead a minor recovery in the market. 💼 Even though declining dollar index and US bond yields are positive, the declines are not adequate to arrest the sustained selling by FIIs. Therefore, any significant recovery in the market will be sold into. 💼 The correction in the market has made large-cap valuations reasonable. 💼 Nifty is now trading at around 19 times estimated FY26 earnings. 💼 Long-term investors, who can ignore the volatility caused by FII selling, can use the dips to buy high-quality large caps. The bounce-back of this segment is only a question of time. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Macro indicators from the US suggest that as the swearing-in of Mr. Trump nears, the Trump trade has peaked. 💼 The decline in US bond yields and the dollar index are indications of this. This downshift in the dollar index and bond yields has been assisted by the lower-than-expected CPI inflation in the US, reigniting hopes of more rate cuts by the Fed this year. 💼 Hope of an end to the conflict in Gaza is another major relief. This global backdrop is positive for the market. 💼 A relief rally in India is certainly on the cards, but the sustainability of the rally will depend on the Indian macros, particularly the revival of GDP and earnings growth. 💼 Budget expectations can aid a rally in the market, but it will soon give way to the trends in GDP and earnings growth. 💼 Investors should focus on large caps, which have been more stable than mid and small caps. 💼 Broadly speaking, segments with growth visibility like Pharma and health care, IT, and discretionary consumption will remain resilient. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 With only five more days to go for Trump’s inauguration as US president, soon there will be clarity on Trump’s actions and their likely impact on the markets. 💼 It appears that the dollar and US bond yields have peaked for now. 💼 There are reports that Trump will begin with low tariff hikes, putting pressure on major exporters to the US while leaving room for negotiations. 💼 If this scenario plays out, further rise in the dollar and US bond yields will be arrested. Till then, the FII selling will continue, preempting any rally in the market. 💼 The market will witness lots of stock-specific action in response to the Q3 results. 💼 Performers delivering better-than-expected results are being rewarded. 💼 Those delivering worse-than-expected results are being punished. Therefore, investors should focus on identifying performers. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The constant refrain from many saner voices that the broader market is overpriced and may correct sharply is now playing out. 💼 Reversion to mean valuations is happening in large caps, too. 💼 Strengthening dollar, 10-year US bond yields rising above 4.7%, uncertainty regarding Trump’s actions after January 20th, slowdown in India’s economy and poor corporate earnings, and a sharp surge in crude have all combined to cause this market correction. 💼 Now it appears that the market is a bit oversold, which favours a bounce back in the near term. However, that trend, if it plays out, is unlikely to sustain. 💼 There is more pain likely in mid and small caps. 💼 The net institutional activity in the market yesterday sends a clear message. 💼 DII buying was Rs 3174 crores higher than FII selling, indicating that smart money like HNIs are also selling in the market. 💼 The FII strategy of continuously adding to short positions this month has been successful. 💼 The sensible option for retail investors is to buy beaten down quality large caps and wait patiently. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets