Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 The reversal in FII strategy in India from selling to buying continued for the week ending 2nd May. 💼 During the first three months of 2025, FIIs have been big sellers through the exchanges. Cumulatively, FIIs sold equity for ₹1,29,680 crores during this 3-month period. 💼 During the last 12 trading days, FIIs have been sustained buyers in the cash market, having bought equities for ₹40,145 crores cumulatively. This is a major pivot in FII strategy, and this will impart resilience to the market. 💼 The concern now is India’s retaliatory action to the terrorist strike and its fallout. This concern will restrict the FII-led rally. 💼 The steep decline in the Dollar Index from 111 on 11th January to 99 recently continues to be a strong tailwind for the market. 💼 The outperformance of the largecaps over the broader market is a healthy trend that is playing out now. This trend can sustain. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 After the sharp market correction triggered by Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the Pahalgam terror strikes, April has closed with above 4% gains in Nifty. This surprising resilience of the market has been primarily driven by the sustained FII buying for eleven trading days in a row, taking the cumulative FII buying for this period to ₹37,375 crores. 💼 FII buying has been driven by weakness in the dollar and declining growth prospects in the US. Other macros like declining interest rates in India, decline in the crude price, and green shoots of pick-up in demand are positives for the market. 💼 The high probability of India, among the five ‘allies’ of the US, entering into early trade deals with the US is also a significant positive factor. However, at the current juncture of high valuations (Nifty trading at above 20 times estimated FY26 earnings) and high India-Pak tensions, the near-term risk-reward is not in favour of high reward. Therefore, investors can play it safe by increasing the cash component in the portfolio even while remaining invested. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

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💼 The surprising resilience of the market is significant. After the reciprocal tariff tantrums and the heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, Nifty is up 5% in April. This underscores the importance of not panicking during a crisis. It is important to remain invested. 💼 The crucial support to the market is coming from the sustained FII inflows, which have touched a cumulative figure of ₹37,325 crores in the last 10 trading sessions. 💼 The weakness of the dollar and India’s economic resilience are supporting this FII’s India trade. This can continue. However, investors should exercise caution. 💼 Since markets have rewarded patience and many stocks have appreciated handsomely, investors can do partial profit booking and increase the cash component in their portfolio. This strategy should be as a measure of abundant caution. 💼 There are unknown unknowns in the market now. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The Sensex did a Vaibhav Suryavanshi yesterday with a 1005-point spectacular rally amidst the heightened tensions at the border. 💼 What message is the market sending? The market has discounted, as everyone else has, that there will be an appropriate response from India to the terrorist attacks, but the market hopes that tensions will not lead to a war which can have very bad consequences. 💼 The strong pillar of support for the market now is the sustained FII buying for nine days in a row for a cumulative amount of ₹34,940 crores. 💼 India’s potential relative outperformance compared to other large economies can support the FII inflows and impart resilience to the market. 💼 The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remark yesterday that “I would guess that India would be one of the first trade deals we would sign” is a big positive for India. However, investors should exercise caution in the near term in the context of the high uncertainty regarding the fallout from the border tensions. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The heightened uncertainty relating to Indo-Pak tensions will weigh on the markets. It is very difficult to judge how much the market has discounted. 💼 Going by the resilience of the market, it can be said that the market has not discounted a scenario of the tensions culminating in a war between the two countries. It is important to remember that markets have an uncanny ability to surprise by climbing many walls of worries. 💼 The major factor contributing to the resilience of the market is the sustained buying by FIIs, which has amounted to ₹32,465 crores in the last eight days. 💼 FIIs have turned sustained buyers in a dramatic reversal of their sustained selling strategy. This, in turn, is due to the relative underperformance of US stocks, US bonds, and the dollar. 💼 In an environment of a weakening US economy and depreciating dollar, FIIs may continue to buy, providing support to the market. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 There are tailwinds and headwinds for the market now. 💼 A strong tailwind is the sustained FII buying, which has touched a cumulative amount of ₹29,513 crores during the last 7 days. 💼 This is a total reversal of the momentum trade to US stocks when the dollar was strengthening. Since FII buying is likely to sustain, bears will restrain from shorting the market. 💼 Another tailwind is US Treasury Secretary Scot Bessent’s remark that “India is expected to strike the first bilateral trade deal with the US.” 💼 The US is also keen to strike as many deals as possible since China’s response to US initiatives has been indifferent. 💼 The resilience of the Indian economy can continue to support the market. 💼 The potential headwind looming large on the horizon is the uncertainty regarding India’s response to the terror attack and its consequences. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Nifty’s decoupling from the S&P 500 is striking. While the S&P 500 is down 8.4% YTD, Nifty is up 2.27% YTD. 💼 The resilience of the Indian economy, the expected slowdown in the US economy, the weakness in the dollar, and the steady FII buying in India of ₹21,263 crores in the last 6 days are contributing to the outperformance of India. However, the stretched valuations (Nifty is trading above 20 times estimated FY26 earnings) will constrain the rally. 💼 In the very short run, the market may respond to the results flowing in. However, going forward, the market will be concerned about the timing, nature, and magnitude of India’s response to the terror attacks and its consequences. Therefore, investors have to be cautious even while remaining invested. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Terror attacks, while succeeding in taking precious human lives, cannot succeed in even marginally impacting our economy and markets. 💼 Pakistan’s political instability and basket-case economy cannot do any damage to the Indian economy and markets. 💼 Markets may send this message today, and the fundamental factors are favourable. 💼 President Trump’s message that he has no intention of firing the Fed chief has calmed the US markets. 💼 Trump’s remarks on Chinese tariffs indicate that he might reduce the US-China tensions. 💼 The sustained buying by FIIs is a strong support to Indian markets. 💼 Technically, the market might move into an overbought territory soon, inviting some profit booking. 💼 Investors should remain invested in high-quality large caps. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets