Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 The market structure favours continuation of the ongoing consolidation phase. 💼There are global headwinds like renewed tariff concerns that will restrain a breakout rally. At the same time, there are domestic tailwinds that will support the market at lower levels. 💼 President Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium is a clear message that the tariff and trade scenario will continue to be uncertain and turbulent. This headwind will impact markets. 💼 On the domestic front, the tailwinds are getting stronger with the latest Q4 GDP growth data coming at 7.4%, which is much better-than-expected. 💼 Trends in consumption expenditure and capital expenditure are promising. This, along with low inflation and the expected continuation of the rate cutting policy, provides the perfect setting for sustained economic growth in FY26. 💼 The only challenge is the tepid earnings growth. 💼 If leading indicators suggest a recovery in earnings growth, there is a high probability of the market breaking out of the present range and moving higher. . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Stable institutional flows — both FII and DII — are keeping the market steady even in the absence of positive triggers. 💼 The ongoing consolidation phase is likely to continue in the near-term. 💼 Investors should understand two distinct big trends that will weigh on markets: One, India’s macros are strong and improving. Two, this positive trend in macros is not getting reflected in corporate earnings. This is the fundamental reason for the range-bound movement of the market. 💼 FY25 Nifty earnings growth was a pedestrian 5.5% and the projection for FY26 is around 10%. 💼 Valuation multiple of 21 for 10% earnings growth is certainly on the higher side. This will cap the upside to the Nifty until leading indicators suggest a recovery in earnings growth. 💼 At the same time, steadily improving macros like resilient GDP growth, down trending inflation and interest rates, and declining fiscal and current account deficits lay the foundation for a strong economy and earnings recovery in the medium term. 💼 Investors should remain invested and buy quality stocks on dips. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Trump’s tariff-related news continues to impact markets. 💼 The US Federal court striking down the reciprocal tariffs is a clear message that the maverick president cannot ride roughshod over markets and economy with his questionable decisions. This court ruling is the second big blow to President Trump after the blow delivered by the bond market which forced the Trump administration to pause the tariffs for 90 days. 💼 From the market perspective, this is a positive development. 💼 Nifty is consolidating in a 500 point range within 24500 - 25000. 💼 A breakout or breakdown from this range appears difficult in the near-term. 💼 All the action is in the mid and smallcap space in response to the results. 💼 Investors should not chase mid and smallcaps without any concern for valuations. 💼 Quality mid and smallcaps have the potential to outperform. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Positive cues from the US market, weak dollar and soft gold will provide a favourable macro construct for the equity market today. 💼 Large liquidity with the mutual funds and the trend of sustained SIP inflows would encourage fund managers to buy consistently. 💼 Tariff-related issues and President Trump’s comments on a whole host of economic and non-economic issues would continue to weigh on markets. 💼 The MPC is almost certain to cut policy rates by 25 bp in the June 6th policy meeting. Therefore, rate sensitives will be in focus in the coming days. 💼 Buy on dips is the ideal strategy in the present phase of market consolidation. 💼 BAT’s decision to sell 2.3% stake in ITC will keep the stock subdued. This will provide opportunity for long-term investors to buy this fairly-valued bluechip. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 In the near-term the market is likely to consolidate around the current levels. Since mutual funds are sitting on sizeable cash, any dip will be bought into and high valuations will trigger selling on rallies. 💼 A sustained rally will happen only when leading indicators suggest revival in earnings growth. That is some time away. 💼 An important trend in the market now is the slow accumulation in rate sensitives like autos in anticipation of more rate cuts which are almost sure to happen since inflation is trending down. 💼 A significant feature of the SIP flows during this phase of the market is that investors are staying invested for longer time periods than in the past. This will provide support to the market. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity

💼 News of India becoming the fourth largest economy in the world would be a near-term morale boost for the market. 💼 RBI’s bumper dividend payment to the government exceeding the budget estimates will help contain the fiscal deficit target for FY26 at 4.4%. This, in turn, can sustain the low inflation and declining interest rate trend which will continue to support the equity market. 💼 FII inflows which have been strong in early May have turned erratic recently indicating potential selling at higher levels. It appears that the good news regarding tariffs is behind us. 💼 Trump’s comments regarding tariffs on the EU and the 25% tariff threat to Apple if they don’t manufacture iPhones in the US suggest that bad news impacting the market can suddenly come from the US President any time. 💼 A significant feature of the Q4 results season is the outperformance of the midcaps which has helped reduce the high valuations of the segment . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 After the 14 percent pull back from the March lows the market is struggling to find direction. It appears that the sustained FII buying which played the important role in this rally has run out of steam. 💼 The big FII selling on 20th and 22nd of this month indicates that the FIIs may again turn sellers if the global environment turns unfavourable. 💼 There are some global concerns arising out of the sharp rise in bond yields in US and Japan. Particularly the sharp spike in US bond yields with the 30-year yield touching 5.14% and the 10-year yield at 4.52% reflect concerns surrounding the US debt levels and its fall out on global financial markets. It remains to be seen how this pans out. 💼 The silver lining from the market perspective is India’s strong macros particularly the resilient growth and declining inflation and interest rates. Even when the market turns weak, domestic demand driven segments like financials, telecom, aviation etc are resilient and this is reflected in the strength in the stock prices of the big boys in these segments like ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel and Interglobe Aviation. This message from the market is important. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 There is slight risk off in global markets. This is evident from the strength in alternate assets like gold and Bitcoin. 💼 The fundamental issue is the high fiscal deficit of the US which the market feels is unsustainable. 💼 The weak US 20-year bond auction and the spike in yields of 5-year, 10-year and 30-year bonds indicate the declining confidence in US bonds. 💼 In Japan, too, bond yields are rising. 💼 Rising US bond yields are usually negative for emerging markets. But the situation is slightly different now. 💼 The root cause of the problem is the unsustainable US fiscal deficit and debt. This may trigger some capital flows away from the US to other economies where prospects for growth and earnings are better. 💼 An important trend from the market perspective is that companies driven by domestic consumption are doing well. 💼 The Q4 results of Interglobe aviation and Bharti Airtel are good examples of this trend. This trend can sustain. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Spike in uncertainty and risk is impacting the market rather unexpectedly. 💼 Yesterday’s FII sell figure of Rs 10016 crores is a major reversal of their big buying in May and if this persists it has the potential to impact the market. 💼 What caused this sudden reversal in FII activity? A combination of many factors may be responsible: credit rating downgrade of US sovereign debt and the consequent spike in US bond yields, spike in Japanese Govt Bond yields, rising COVID cases in some parts of India and reports of a possible Israel attack on Iran are doing the rounds. 💼 Investors can wait and watch for the events to unfold. 💼 The 30-year JGB yield spiking to 3.14% in the backdrop of the US 30-year yield spiking to 5% couple of days back sends a feeling of disquiet in financial markets. This may not create any near-term impact but is bound to have some medium to long-term consequences. 💼 Investors have to exercise caution. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets