Geojit Financial Services Ltd

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💼 The monetary bazooka fired by the RBI on Friday will keep the market spirits alive in the near-term. But this is not sufficient to sustain the rally triggered on Friday. More important is the trend in earnings growth. 💼 Q4 results indicate better earnings growth for midcaps. But large and small caps continue to struggle. 💼 FY26 earnings are unlikely to reach mid-teens, which is necessary for the market to remain resilient and move up. 💼 Market needs signs of revenue and earnings acceleration to move up. In the absence of such indicators, the present Nifty range is likely to move up marginally to 24500 - 25500. 💼 Ample liquidity can support the downside but earnings concerns will cap the upside. 💼 Weak US and Chinese macro data is favourable for emerging markets like India. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

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💼 Uncertainty, which has been looming large on the global economic horizon, has spiked with the open spat between President Trump and Elon Musk. This unprecedented clash between two of the world’s most powerful and mercurial personalities will have its consequences on the policies of the US administration. 💼 Chinese restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals and magnets, in response to the reciprocal tariffs imposed by US, have already started impacting the EV automobile industry. 💼 Important US data like US ISM PMI and jobless claims indicate that the US economy is slowing down. 💼 US is likely to end 2025 with a GDP growth of mere 1%. 💼 US bond yields are likely to fall further which will be positive for EMs, particularly India, whose growth prospects are the brightest. 💼 In today’s monetary policy the RBI is likely to cut policy rates by 25 bp. This is already factored in by the market. 💼 More important will be the RBI commentary on growth and inflation projections for FY26. 💼 If the inflation forecast is cut from 4%, the market would respond positively. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Both geopolitical and economic news are likely to weigh on markets in the near-term. 💼 A serious concern is a potential Russian retaliation to the recent Ukraine attacks on Russian planes. 💼 How serious this will be and what will be its consequences are unknown factors now. 💼 The major economic news is the sharp dip in the US ISM PMI data. This indicates that the US economy is slowing down sharply. 💼 The US 10-year bond yield has declined to 4.36% and, given the slowing US economy, is likely to trend lower. This will turn out to be good for EMs like India in the medium term, but the spike in uncertainty will keep the market within the present range for the near-term. 💼 Buy on dips continues to be the ideal strategy now. 💼 Rate sensitives will be preferred in view of the expected rate cut by the MPC on 8th June. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

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💼 The recent Nifty range of 24000–25000 is likely to persist in the near-term. 💼 In the medium-term, a breakout above 25000 is a clear possibility rather than a breakdown below 24000. 💼 Unexpected developments, however, can alter the scenario. 💼 The strong fundamental factors that will support the market are India’s robust and improving macros and sustained flows into mutual funds, particularly the SIP inflows which are steady and growing. This reflects the coming of age of the Indian retail investor. 💼 An important takeaway from the Q4 results is the outperformance of the midcaps relative to largecaps and smallcaps. 💼 Since CPI inflation in India is benign, the rate cutting cycle has more room to go with minimum two more rate cuts in 2025. Even though this will put the margins of the banks under some pressure, the leading names in the sector, particularly the large private banks, are well placed to deliver 12 to 15% returns in one year. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets