Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 Macro indicators from the US suggest that as the swearing-in of Mr. Trump nears, the Trump trade has peaked. 💼 The decline in US bond yields and the dollar index are indications of this. This downshift in the dollar index and bond yields has been assisted by the lower-than-expected CPI inflation in the US, reigniting hopes of more rate cuts by the Fed this year. 💼 Hope of an end to the conflict in Gaza is another major relief. This global backdrop is positive for the market. 💼 A relief rally in India is certainly on the cards, but the sustainability of the rally will depend on the Indian macros, particularly the revival of GDP and earnings growth. 💼 Budget expectations can aid a rally in the market, but it will soon give way to the trends in GDP and earnings growth. 💼 Investors should focus on large caps, which have been more stable than mid and small caps. 💼 Broadly speaking, segments with growth visibility like Pharma and health care, IT, and discretionary consumption will remain resilient. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 With only five more days to go for Trump’s inauguration as US president, soon there will be clarity on Trump’s actions and their likely impact on the markets. 💼 It appears that the dollar and US bond yields have peaked for now. 💼 There are reports that Trump will begin with low tariff hikes, putting pressure on major exporters to the US while leaving room for negotiations. 💼 If this scenario plays out, further rise in the dollar and US bond yields will be arrested. Till then, the FII selling will continue, preempting any rally in the market. 💼 The market will witness lots of stock-specific action in response to the Q3 results. 💼 Performers delivering better-than-expected results are being rewarded. 💼 Those delivering worse-than-expected results are being punished. Therefore, investors should focus on identifying performers. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The constant refrain from many saner voices that the broader market is overpriced and may correct sharply is now playing out. 💼 Reversion to mean valuations is happening in large caps, too. 💼 Strengthening dollar, 10-year US bond yields rising above 4.7%, uncertainty regarding Trump’s actions after January 20th, slowdown in India’s economy and poor corporate earnings, and a sharp surge in crude have all combined to cause this market correction. 💼 Now it appears that the market is a bit oversold, which favours a bounce back in the near term. However, that trend, if it plays out, is unlikely to sustain. 💼 There is more pain likely in mid and small caps. 💼 The net institutional activity in the market yesterday sends a clear message. 💼 DII buying was Rs 3174 crores higher than FII selling, indicating that smart money like HNIs are also selling in the market. 💼 The FII strategy of continuously adding to short positions this month has been successful. 💼 The sensible option for retail investors is to buy beaten down quality large caps and wait patiently. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Market will continue to be under pressure from the many strong headwinds. 💼 The blowout jobs data from the US with 2.56 lakh job creation in December against expectations of 1.65 lakh means the rate cut expectations in 2025 is now down to one. 💼 With unemployment in the US down to 4.1%, the economy doesn’t need any stimulus. 💼 This good economic news is turning out to be bad news for markets, which were discounting many rate cuts this year. 💼 For India, the Brent crude rising to $81 is a concern. However, the IIP data for November at 5.2% indicates that the economy is recovering from the slowdown in Q2. 💼 The strength of the US economy augurs well for IT stocks, which have been resilient even during weakness in the market. 💼 Pharma and healthcare stocks will be under less pressure since the demand situation is good. 💼 With the US 10-year bond yield above 4.7%, FIIs will continue to sell, offering opportunities for long-term investors to buy reasonably priced large-caps, particularly in banking. 💼 The broader market will continue to be under pressure. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 In the context of the looming uncertainty regarding President Trump’s likely actions, the market is unlikely to rally in the near term. 💼 Sustained FII selling, which touched Rs 7,170 crores yesterday, continues to put pressure on the market. 💼 With the results season underway, the market will witness significant stock-specific action in response to earnings. 💼 Results from TCS indicate that the IT sector will continue to remain resilient. 💼 Banking majors are expected to deliver good results, but FII selling may prevent the sector from performing as expected. 💼 Pharma and select auto stocks, such as Eicher, M&M, and Bajaj Auto, are potential outperformers in a weak market. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 So far in January, FIIs have sold equity worth Rs 10,419 crores. 💼 With the dollar index at 109 and the 10-year bond yield at 4.67%, FIIs are likely to continue their selling strategy, putting pressure on the market in the near term. 💼 With the Q3 results season starting today, there will be market reactions to results. 💼 The results of TCS will provide an indication of what is in store for the IT sector. 💼 The strength of the U.S. economy and the depreciation of the rupee will be tailwinds for the IT sector. 💼 Premium segments like hotels, jewellery, automobiles catering to the premium market, and airlines are likely to report good numbers. 💼 Expectations from President Trump’s policy decisions and the Indian Union Budget proposals will keep the market volatile in the coming days. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The trend of strong US macros weakening emerging markets is continuing. 💼 The US 10-year bond yield has spiked to 4.67% on better-than-expected jobs numbers and indications of the services sector doing very well. 💼 This means the Fed may hold rates in January, leading to further strengthening of the dollar and rising bond yields. 💼 The fallout of this on the Indian macros is that the RBI may hold rates in February against the market expectation of a cut. 💼 In this macro setting, FIIs are likely to continue selling, putting pressure on the market. 💼 Large caps, despite fair valuations, may continue to be on the defensive. 💼 Investors can take a slightly long-term view of the market and buy large caps in financials, IT, pharmaceuticals, and select autos. These segments will bounce back in a few months when macros turn positive for India. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The 1.6% cut in Nifty yesterday appears to be an overreaction to the HMPV virus concerns. 💼 FII selling of Rs 2575 crores was overwhelmed by the DII buying of Rs 5750 crores. 💼 In spite of that, if Nifty corrected by 388 points, it means the correction was triggered by short selling by bears trying to exploit the negative sentiments. 💼 The resilience of the Pharma and healthcare stocks also indicates the influence of the virus concerns on the market. 💼 The fact that momentum stocks were on the back foot yesterday indicates a lack of confidence by the bulls in the context of negative sentiments. 💼 Clarification by the government that there is no room for undue concern from the virus, which is not new, can facilitate a rebound in the market, led by momentum stocks. 💼 Investors can use the dip to buy fundamentally strong beaten-down stocks in automobiles and financials. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The market is likely to be influenced by the negative factors impacting FII flows and some positive domestic factors which can support the market. 💼 The external macro construct continues to be unfavourable with the dollar index at 109 and the 10-year US bond yield at 4.62%. 💼 The FIIs are likely to continue selling till the yields decline and the dollar stabilises. 💼 Domestically, the December auto numbers indicate that the much-talked-about urban demand deceleration is exaggerated. 💼 Buying will resume in these resilient domestic segments, supporting the market on declines. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets