Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 After the global sell-off in equity markets yesterday, there are positive signals today. 💼 The decision taken by Trump to temporarily freeze the tariffs on Mexico and Canada and start negotiations is a clear indication of his strategy: impose tariffs, then negotiate and strike a deal. 💼 The same strategy is likely to be tried with China, too. 💼 It is important to understand that a full-blown trade war will be damaging for the US as well. 💼 The decline in the dollar index to 108 is a positive development. 💼 Emboldened by the excellent Budget, investors, especially DIIs, are likely to step up investment, particularly in discretionary consumption segments. 💼 Cars, scooters, motorcycles, white goods like air conditioners and washing machines, jewellery, hotels, and food delivery businesses are the segments that will benefit from the Budget. Therefore, these are the segments to focus on. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Despite an excellent Budget, the market will be under pressure from the Trump tariffs and the heightened global uncertainty these ‘initial round of tariffs’ have triggered. 💼 It is important to understand that the 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada are to punish them for issues like immigration and illicit trade in fentanyl. 💼 Trump may use tariffs again against other countries on non-trade issues. 💼 China’s response to the 10% tariffs has been more responsible. 💼 For now, they have not reacted like Mexico and Canada by imposing tariffs on imports from the US. Instead, they are moving the WTO against the US action. Now we don’t know how this will pan out. 💼 For now, India is not affected. Therefore, the impact on the Indian market will be less. 💼 But the spike in the dollar index to above 109.6 will trigger more selling by FIIs, putting the market under pressure. 💼 Domestic consumption stocks will be relatively resilient since they stand to benefit from the income tax cuts announced in the Budget. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 On Budget day, market reactions will be quick in response to Budget announcements. 💼 A major expectation from the Budget is a cut in personal income tax to provide relief to the middle class and boost consumption, thereby facilitating growth recovery. 💼 The extent of the tax relief remains to be seen. 💼 The fact is that there is no fiscal space for big relief. 💼 The market will be looking for growth-stimulating measures, not market-related taxation reliefs like changes in capital gains taxation. 💼 The market response to the Budget will not last more than a few days. 💼 Trends in growth and earnings recovery will dictate the medium to long-term market direction. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The Budget expectations and actuals will influence the market today and tomorrow. 💼 Since we are going into the Budget without a pre-Budget rally, the probability of a rally post-Budget will be high if the Budget delivers on growth-stimulating initiatives like a cut in personal income tax. 💼 However, it is important to understand that the impact of the Budget will last only for a few days at best. 💼 The medium to long-term trend of the market will be dictated by GDP and earnings growth. 💼 Therefore, investors should look for cues on these crucial macro trends. 💼 The market is strongly reacting to results, with good results being rewarded and poor results getting punished. This has spiked market volatility. 💼 Fairly valued, high-quality largecap financials continue to be a safe sector for investors. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The recovery in the market is healthy since it is being led by fairly valued largecaps. 💼 The rally can sustain if the Budget comes up with strong growth-stimulating measures that can improve market sentiment. 💼 However, a sustained rally can happen only if FII selling stops and we get some leading indicators suggesting growth and earnings recovery. 💼 Globally, stock markets remain strong mainly due to the resilient US economy and the downtrending interest rate cycle in the US. 💼 The Fed’s decision to pause yesterday was on expected lines. 💼 The Fed chief Powell’s statement that “the central bank will need to see real progress on inflation or easing of labour conditions before making further adjustments” is a clear message that further cuts will be data-dependent. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 YTD, Nifty is down 3.3%, while Nifty Midcap is down 9.1% and Nifty Smallcap is down 14.71%. 💼 The takeaway from this important data is that valuations are reverting to the mean. This trend will make the market healthy and is likely to continue. 💼 Correction in the overvalued broader market is desirable. 💼 The recovery in the market witnessed yesterday can continue with resilience in fairly priced financials. However, a sharp rally is unlikely since FIIs will sell at higher levels. 💼 The market will be looking forward to positive cues in the Budget. 💼 The Fed decision today is unlikely to influence the market since no change in policy is expected from this meeting. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The DeepSeek impact on the US stock market in general, and the tech stocks in particular, has turned out to be a reality check for the overvalued stock market. 💼 In the medium term, this is likely to have a sobering effect on markets globally. 💼 The Indian market appears to be oversold and is set for a rebound. 💼 The RBI’s announcement of measures to boost liquidity in the banking system by around Rs 1.5 trillion is a positive for the market. 💼 This raises the prospects of a rate cut by the MPC in the February policy meeting. 💼 Banks are likely to benefit. 💼 After the correction, the market is now trading at fair valuations, which are in line with long-term (10-year) averages. 💼 Investors can utilise the opportunity to buy fundamentally strong, high-quality stocks. 💼 The outperformance of largecaps over mid- and smallcaps is a healthy trend. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The market sentiment has turned weak. 💼 Sustained FPI selling (Rs 69,000 crores in January, so far) is impacting the market. 💼 Despite DII buying of Rs 67,000 crores in January, so far, the market is under pressure. 💼 A major concern is that President Trump is coming up with new threats, like the 25% tariff on Columbia for its refusal to take back deported illegal immigrants. 💼 The threatened 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico might be implemented from February 1st onwards. 💼 Therefore, whether Trump will walk his talk on other threats, including tariffs on China and other countries, is a question being asked in economic and market circles now. These concerns are weighing on the markets. 💼 This 6-day week is likely to be highly volatile, with other major events like the Fed decision and the Budget in India. 💼 The market is looking forward to fiscal stimulus through income tax cuts in the Budget. 💼 If the expectations are met, there can be a relief rally in the market. 💼 But if a rally is to sustain, we need data indicating growth and earnings revival. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The strength of the US market with S&P 500 setting yet another record high and the 10-year US bond yield remaining strong around 4.65% will continue to weigh on the Indian market. 💼 FIIs will continue to sell, putting pressure on largecaps like banking. 💼 The irrationality in the market, characterised by fair and even low valuations for largecaps like banking and excessive valuations in the broader market, will have to reverse at some point of time. But we don’t know when that will happen. 💼 The Q3 results of IT companies and the management commentary indicating improving prospects for the sector suggest that the sector is a safe bet now. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets