Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼There are no immediate near-term triggers that can take the market sharply up or down. 💼Up moves may attract selling by FIIs who are likely to move some more money to China and Hong Kong since these markets are cheap and is witnessing uptrend now. 💼But FII selling is unlikely to push the market down significantly since the ample domestic liquidity can easily absorb such selling. 💼A range-bound market is the near-term scenario and, therefore, the real action will be stock-specific. 💼Since there is no valuation comfort in the market now and the mid and smallcap segments are overvalued, investors should give priority to safety and prefer largecaps. 💼Bank Nifty has more potential to move up and there is valuation comfort in this space. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Two trends deserve attention. The serious global geopolitical concern continues to be the Middle East where things are getting worse. 💼Israeli strikes on Lebanon has killed hundreds of people triggering concerns. Crude has inched up. 💼Gold and the volatility index are moving up reflecting anxiety. However, the market remains resilient and the undertone continues to be bullish. 💼Investors have to take a call based on these two trends. 💼The preference for quality and fair value is getting stronger in India as reflected in the continuous rise in Bank Nifty for the eighth straight session. 💼The return of FIIs into the market in September will aid recovery in frontline banking stocks. 💼SEBI’s latest warning about 93% of individual traders losing money in the F&O market should be taken seriously. 💼It is unfortunate that while systematic investors are making good money the vast majority of individual traders are losing money. 💼The primary responsibility of conserving and growing one’s hard earned money rests with the individual. Earlier the individual traders realise this, the better for them. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The charging bull got a shot of steroids from the Fed when it cut interest rates by 50bp on September 18th. 💼More than the rate cut, it was the Fed chief’s optimistic commentary that lifted the markets sharply. 💼The signal from the Fed is that inflation is under control and the economy is unlikely to tip into recession. 💼This message is positive for equities, positive for emerging markets and positive for India. 💼Nifty now appears to be moving to its next target of 26000 which is only 210 points away. 💼The move towards this target is likely to be led by the banking majors which are showing strong momentum. 💼There are two factors favouring banking stocks now: one, the FIIs who were major sellers early this year have turned buyers and they are likely to buy more banking stocks which are even now fairly valued in this highly valued market. 💼Second, the credit-deposit gap which has been impacting banks’ margins has started narrowing. 💼In brief, accumulation is likely in banking stocks and this has the potential to push the market up. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The Dow and S&P 500 setting yet another record highs yesterday is indicative of the strength of this ongoing global bull run led by the mother market US. 💼The good labour market data from the US indicates that the labour market is only slowing, not deteriorating. 💼With inflation under control, this means the US is set for a soft landing under a declining interest rate scenario. 💼This is positive for global equity markets. 💼A significant trend in India is the outperformance of Bank Nifty which is up two percent this week against Nifty’s rise of 0.2%. 💼Weakness in the broader market on valuation concerns is another important trend. These trends are likely to continue. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The big Fed rate cut by 50 bp has the potential to take equity markets into a consolidation phase with an upward bias. 💼The Fed chief Powell’s remark that “ we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%” is a very optimistic commentary of the US economy. 💼At the same time US growth continues to be solid and labour market is good. 💼More rate cuts are expected from the Fed, going forward. The rate projections are 4.4% by end 2024 and 3.4% for end 2025. 💼These will be big declines from the present 4.75 to 5% rate. 💼The rate cuts by the Fed will pave the way for rate cuts in India, too. CPI inflation coming below the RBI’s target of 4% during the last 2 months will facilitate rate cuts . 💼Two rate cuts of 25bp each are possible in India before March 2025. 💼In brief the market scenario is turning favourable for rate-sensitives, particularly banking. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The significance of the Fed rate decision expected tonight is evident from the wait and watch market mood across the globe yesterday. 💼Perhaps more important than the Fed action would be the Fed commentary and the message. 💼An ideal and possible outcome would be a 25 bp rate cut with a dovish message indicating a series of rate cuts. 💼Good retail sales data along with weakening labor market point to such a possibility. 💼India’s August trade data indicate stagnant exports and rising imports. The consequent rising trade deficit can weaken the INR, if the trend persists. 💼This means exporters like IT will benefit. Pharma, chemicals and textile exporters too will benefit. 💼The time is favourable for reducing the exposure to mid and small caps and increasing the exposure to largecaps. 💼This strategy will play out well in the medium to long run. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Globally equity markets were flat yesterday signalling a wait and watch mood in anticipation of the Fed rate action tomorrow. 💼The Fed rate action will depend on the incoming data and evolving outlook and, therefore, what the Fed chief Powell says will be crucial. 💼Rate cuts are positive for markets and higher rate cuts are more positive. 💼But if the incoming data signals a sharply slowing economy and the Fed cuts by 50bp the market is unlikely to treat it as positive. 💼It is possible that the market may take it as a signal of the US economy tipping into recession and, therefore, the response need not be positive. 💼Banking stocks have been exhibiting strength recently and there are signs of accumulation in these attractively valued segment. 💼The finance minister’s remark in a recent interview cautioning investors about the dangers of excessive speculation has come at the right time. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Globally equity markets will be focused on the Fed rate action on Wednesday which is likely to influence the stock market trend in the near-term. 💼 The first rate cut by the Fed in four years is a foregone conclusion, the only uncertainty is about the extent of the rate cut, that is, whether the cut will be 25 bp or 50 bp. 💼 The market will also be keenly watching the Fed commentary on the evolving economic outlook. 💼 Nifty which has rallied 16.7% YTD is one of the best performing stock indices in the world. 💼 Even though India’s economic fundamentals and corporate earnings are strong, the single most important factor driving the Indian market now is the sustained domestic liquidity flows into the market. 💼 The resilience of the Indian market despite elevated valuations has forced FIIs to turn buyers in the cash market, where they bought on all days last week. 💼 Since the undertone of the market continues to be bullish, it makes sense to remain invested. 💼 Among sectors, IT and pharma are showing strength. #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Yesterday’s sharp up move which saw the Nifty spurt by 1.9% was a purely technical move triggered by short covering on the expiry day. 💼It is important to understand that the 400-point rally in the Nifty happened after 2pm. 💼Call writers trapped by the unexpected up move resorted to frenzied covering, pushing up prices sharply. 💼Since the bears were badly mauled, the market is in bull grip now. The situation can change in a few days. 💼A significant trend in the market is FIIs turning buyers for the fourth day in succession with yesterday’s buying figure at an impressive Rs 7695 crores. 💼DIIs who bought when FIIs sold are now selling back to FIIs at a higher price the same shares which they sold earlier. 💼In the tug-of-war between FIIs and DIIs which has been happening over the last more than two years. DIIs have been winning consistently. 💼Fundamentally strong largecaps like Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, ITC, HCL Tech, Infosys and TCS have the potential to take the market forward. 💼But higher levels can attract selling by DIIs and profit booking by individual investors. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets