Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼Globally equity markets were flat yesterday signalling a wait and watch mood in anticipation of the Fed rate action tomorrow. 💼The Fed rate action will depend on the incoming data and evolving outlook and, therefore, what the Fed chief Powell says will be crucial. 💼Rate cuts are positive for markets and higher rate cuts are more positive. 💼But if the incoming data signals a sharply slowing economy and the Fed cuts by 50bp the market is unlikely to treat it as positive. 💼It is possible that the market may take it as a signal of the US economy tipping into recession and, therefore, the response need not be positive. 💼Banking stocks have been exhibiting strength recently and there are signs of accumulation in these attractively valued segment. 💼The finance minister’s remark in a recent interview cautioning investors about the dangers of excessive speculation has come at the right time. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Globally equity markets will be focused on the Fed rate action on Wednesday which is likely to influence the stock market trend in the near-term. 💼 The first rate cut by the Fed in four years is a foregone conclusion, the only uncertainty is about the extent of the rate cut, that is, whether the cut will be 25 bp or 50 bp. 💼 The market will also be keenly watching the Fed commentary on the evolving economic outlook. 💼 Nifty which has rallied 16.7% YTD is one of the best performing stock indices in the world. 💼 Even though India’s economic fundamentals and corporate earnings are strong, the single most important factor driving the Indian market now is the sustained domestic liquidity flows into the market. 💼 The resilience of the Indian market despite elevated valuations has forced FIIs to turn buyers in the cash market, where they bought on all days last week. 💼 Since the undertone of the market continues to be bullish, it makes sense to remain invested. 💼 Among sectors, IT and pharma are showing strength. #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Yesterday’s sharp up move which saw the Nifty spurt by 1.9% was a purely technical move triggered by short covering on the expiry day. 💼It is important to understand that the 400-point rally in the Nifty happened after 2pm. 💼Call writers trapped by the unexpected up move resorted to frenzied covering, pushing up prices sharply. 💼Since the bears were badly mauled, the market is in bull grip now. The situation can change in a few days. 💼A significant trend in the market is FIIs turning buyers for the fourth day in succession with yesterday’s buying figure at an impressive Rs 7695 crores. 💼DIIs who bought when FIIs sold are now selling back to FIIs at a higher price the same shares which they sold earlier. 💼In the tug-of-war between FIIs and DIIs which has been happening over the last more than two years. DIIs have been winning consistently. 💼Fundamentally strong largecaps like Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, ITC, HCL Tech, Infosys and TCS have the potential to take the market forward. 💼But higher levels can attract selling by DIIs and profit booking by individual investors. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Latest US inflation numbers are mildly positive for markets. 💼August CPI inflation coming at 0.2% has brought down the 12-month inflation to 2.5% from 2.9% earlier. 💼This paves the way for a rate cut by the Fed in September. But since core inflation continues to remain high at 3.2% the Fed is likely to be cautious and refrain from a 50bp rate cut, finally settling for a 25bp rate cut. 💼CPI inflation in India also is expected to be low at around 3.5% in August. This can facilitate a rate cut by the MPC in 2024 itself. 💼In brief, the benign inflation conditions and prospects for rate cuts are positives for stock markets. 💼FIIs turning buyers in the cash market during the last three days is another indication that the market will continue to be resilient. 💼The record Rs 3.23 lakh crore application money from 89 lakh investors for Bajaj Housing Finance IPO is a reflection of the humongous liquidity chasing stocks in the Indian market now. 💼The bullish undercurrent of the market will continue. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼A significant trend in the global commodity markets now is the sharp decline in the crude price and softening of base metal prices. 💼This has implications for stock markets. The sharp dip in Brent crude to below $ 70 signals weakening demand globally, which in turn, indicates weakening growth prospects for the global economy. 💼Therefore, rate cuts by the leading central banks of the world is now a foregone conclusion. 💼The Fed will kick off its rate cutting cycle this month. In India,too, we can expect two rate cuts by the MPC in FY25. 💼Banking stocks, which are attractively valued, are good buys now for medium to long-term investors. 💼The investor preference of defensives like Pharma and FMCG is likely to continue. 💼Industries using crude and crude derived inputs as raw material, like paints, adhesives, tyres and aviation will be on strong wicket. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Market is likely to turn volatile in the coming days as indicated by the spurt in CBOE VIX by 12% to 23.50. 💼Two factors are likely to weigh on markets: one, the outcome of the US presidential elections and two, the Fed decision on rate cut. 💼The presidential election is tight now and can go both ways. The market will be concerned about a possible Trump victory and its consequences on policy, particularly on trade tariffs, which markets fear can trigger a trade war. 💼The other concern is regarding the Fed rate action: whether the Fed will cut by 25bp or 50 bp in September. 💼25 bp cut may be inadequate in the context of the slowing economy and 50bp cut may confirm recession fears. This dilemma has to be resolved by the Fed chief Powell in his message. 💼Investors may wait and watch for clarity on these crucial developments. Meanwhile, weakness in the market can be used to slowly accumulate high quality largecaps and defensives like pharmaceuticals. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The near-term trend in the market will be influenced by the US jobs data to be published tonight. 💼There is a consensus that the Fed will cut rates in the September meeting, but the extent of the cut will be determined by the jobs data. 💼If the August jobs numbers come lower than market expectations and the unemployment rises higher than market expectations, the Fed may even cut by 50 bp. 💼But this may not be taken positively by the market. The market may even react negatively factoring in serious growth concerns and even a hard landing scenario for the US economy may start weighing on the market. Investors can wait for this crucial data and take a call based on that. 💼Indian economy continues to do well and the macros are improving as indicated by the 47% growth in FDI in Q1 FY25 and the steady decline in Brent crude prices to below $73 now. 💼There is financial stability and the growth momentum in the economy continues to be strong. 💼The only concern is the elevated valuations and, therefore, investors should prioritise buying fairly valued quality stocks on declines. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Historically September has been a weak month for global markets. This has been true for the last four years. Going by early trends, this might again turnout to be true this year, too. 💼The selloff in US markets yesterday was triggered by growth concerns. There are indications of US manufacturing moving into contraction thereby threatening the soft landing expectation, which has been the pillar of support for the mother market US and consequently for other markets, too. 💼Now there is a small question mark about this scenario. More data is needed to confirm this trend. 💼The buy on dips strategy that has been working well in this bull run may play out this time, too. 💼Retail investors waiting for a correction are likely to jump in on dips. Will the trend sustain remains to be seen. 💼In the present stage of the market where there is no valuation comfort in the broader market, quality largecaps offer safety to long-term investors. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼There are two distinct trends in the market now which can be observed in the secondary and primary markets. 💼In the secondary market, recently, there is a positive trend with high quality stocks being accumulated and moving up. 💼Bajaj Finance, ITC, Bajaj Auto and Maruti are examples of this healthy trend. At the same time there is froth in segments of mid and small caps where valuations are hard to justify. 💼The other trend is the totally irrational moves in the SME IPO market where many SMEs of doubtful credentials are getting their IPOs oversubscribed many times and the stocks on listing are manipulated and driven to upper circuits for days. 💼Due deligence is conspicuous by its absence. Many retail investors, driven by greed, are rushing into this gambling game. This will end in tears for the newbies who have no understanding of market fundamentals. 💼The record-breaking winning streak of the Nifty is likely to end soon, and the market needs to correct. But there are no signals of a major breakdown or triggers for a breakout. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets