Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼When market valuations are at elevated levels some trigger will cause corrections, making the valuations reasonable and in tune with long-term averages. 💼This time the trigger for the correction has come from the sustained selling by FIIs which has reached Rs 88244 crores by 21st October, according to NSDL. 💼This record high FII sell figure didn’t impact the market severely because of the countervailing action of sustained DII buying. 💼The fact is that even after the correction triggered by the sustained FII selling Indian market valuations are higher than historical averages even though largecap valuations can be justified by their long-term growth prospects. 💼Since market sentiments continue to be negative a sharp and sustained recovery appears difficult even though a rebound can happen any time. 💼Financials will be relatively resilient in the present market setting. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼With the US markets setting new record highs, the global stock market rally appears intact. 💼The steady decline in crude and stability in the US bond yields impart resilience to the stock market despite the lingering tensions in the Middle East. 💼The hope raised by the Chinese stimulus and the cheap valuations of Chinese stocks have the potential to sustain the ‘Sell India, Buy China’ tactical trade for some more time. 💼This presents an opportunity for medium to long-term investors. Of the total FII AUM of $930 billion about 28% is financials which are facing the brunt of FII selling. 💼The sustained FII selling has rendered the valuations of financials attractive in an otherwise over-valued market. 💼More important, financials segment is doing well and is in the pink of health. 💼Q2 results of leading banking names like HDFC, Kotak and Axis indicate improving prospects. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The 6% correction in Nifty from the peak has made India an under-performer with only 13.83% return YTD in contrast to the 23.16% return in S&P 500 YTD. 💼The Hang Seng index with 23.16% return YTD has been the best performing market in recent weeks assisted by massive buying by FIIs. 💼The high valuations in India has been the main trigger for the sustained selling by FIIs, and recent developments like consensus downward revision of FY 25 earnings estimates to below 10% and Bajaj Auto’s concerns regarding weak demand during the festive season dampened the sentiments resulting in big selling in auto stocks. 💼Trends indicate that FII selling and DII buying is likely to continue. 💼A bounce back is likely in the next two or three days but it is unlikely to sustain since sentiments have turned weak. 💼Investors may wait and watch for the market to stabilise and slowly accumulate largecaps like leading private sector banks beaten down by FII selling. 💼ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank have the potential to give decent returns in the medium-term. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Dow reaching yet another record high and the resilience of the US economy coupled with impressive corporate earnings indicate the continuation of this bull rally in the mother market US. 💼With the Fed expected to continue the rate cut with another 25bp cut in the next policy meet, S&P 500 has the potential to move past the 6000 level bringing cheer to other equity markets. 💼In India the consolidation around Nifty 25000 level is likely to be extended with bouts of FII selling and DII buying. 💼The reemergence of outperformance of smallcaps driven by liquidity is again becoming a cause of concern. 💼Coming days will witness lots of stock-specific action in response to Q2 results. 💼Expect positive response to results of financials. IT stocks can be bought on dips. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼The main force behind the ongoing global rally in stocks has been the steadily climbing US market. 💼The fact that S&P 500 made 46 new highs this year indicates the strength of this bull market led by the US. 💼The rally has the fundamental support of a strong US economy and decent corporate earnings growth. 💼Even though the Middle East geopolitics has been a dampener, it didn’t spike crude prices and, therefore, there is no threat to inflation which remains under control allowing the Fed to cut rates. 💼The consensus now is the soft landing scenario for the US economy and, this is the strong support to this bull market. 💼In India the main driver of the bull run has been the sustained domestic flows into the market which has been absorbing all the selling by FIIs. 💼The domestic flows will continue to support the market but elevated valuations will put a cap on the upside. 💼Nifty is likely to consolidate around 25000 level. Q2 earnings will be weak except in IT, banking and pockets of autos. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Going into the Q2 results season, the market has been expecting good numbers from IT and banking. 💼HCL Tech’s good results confirm the optimistic expectations and the banking results, particularly from the leading private banks, also are likely to be good. 💼Unlike IT stocks where there is only limited valuation comfort, the banking stocks offer decent valuation comfort and, therefore, have the potential to move up from the present levels. 💼The sharp cut in Brent crude by 3% is a macro positive for India, but CPI inflation for September coming worse than expected at 5.49% is a concern and the MPC will be forced to take this seriously and postpone the rate cut to 2025. 💼Even though FIIs continue to sell, the intensity of their selling has come down reducing the pressure on largecaps. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼This month, through 11th October, FPIs have sold equity for Rs 58710 crores. ( Source: NSDL) This massive selling didn’t have a serious impact on the market since the entire FPI selling has been absorbed by DIIs who are receiving sustained fund inflows. 💼This trend of FII selling and DII buying is likely to sustain in the near-term since Chinese stocks continue to be cheap compared to the elevated valuations in India. 💼IT and banking stocks are likely to remain resilient on the back of expected good Q2 numbers. 💼However, there is only limited scope for the market to move up sharply from here. 💼FY 25 earnings expectations have been downgraded by most analysts. 💼The uncertainty surrounding the US presidential elections next month also is likely to weigh on markets along with the geopolitical tensions in the Midfle East. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼Market is likely to remain volatile in the near-term alternating between FII selling and DII buying. 💼Attractive valuations in other markets, particularly in Chinese stocks, will facilitate further selling by FIIs in India since Indian valuations are elevated. 💼Concerns of earnings downgrades in H2 FY 25 render Indian valuations difficult to sustain. 💼However, the sustained flows into the domestic mutual funds, where monthly SIPs have set a new record of Rs 24500 in September, will ensure that all FII selling will be easily absorbed by DII buying. This has been the trend in October so far. 💼A healthy trend in the market is the leading private sector banks getting accumulated and showing resilience even in a weak market. 💼This is the most attractively valued segment in this market where there is no valuation comfort. 💼Lot of stock-specific action can be expected in the coming days in response to Q2 results. Banking and IT are likely to post reasonably good results. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼There are no immediate near-term triggers that can take the market sharply up or down. 💼Up moves may attract selling by FIIs who are likely to move some more money to China and Hong Kong since these markets are cheap and is witnessing uptrend now. 💼But FII selling is unlikely to push the market down significantly since the ample domestic liquidity can easily absorb such selling. 💼A range-bound market is the near-term scenario and, therefore, the real action will be stock-specific. 💼Since there is no valuation comfort in the market now and the mid and smallcap segments are overvalued, investors should give priority to safety and prefer largecaps. 💼Bank Nifty has more potential to move up and there is valuation comfort in this space. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets