Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 We are in a highly uncertain and volatile situation for global trade, the global economy, and financial markets. 💼 The end game of Trump’s tariff policy remains unclear, adding to market instability. 💼 Trump’s latest move to exempt Canadian and Mexican auto imports from recently hiked tariffs suggests his intent to negotiate from a position of strength. 💼 While deals and settlements are possible, they are unlikely to be smooth or immediate. 💼 The dollar index declining to 104.3 is a positive signal for emerging markets like India. 💼 If this trend continues, FII selling may slow down, paving the way for a market rally. 💼 RBI’s decision to infuse ₹1.9 trillion liquidity into the banking system is positive news for banks and NBFCs. 💼 Brent crude falling below $70 is another macroeconomic boost for India, which markets are likely to discount positively. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Uncertainty unleashed by Trump tariffs is dominating the markets, leading to cautious sentiment. 💼 Trading volumes have dipped sharply, suggesting a lack of conviction among investors. 💼 A market drifting down on low volumes does not necessarily indicate a sustained downtrend. 💼 In this chaotic scenario, new developments can trigger sudden market moves. 💼 The US is unlikely to escape unscathed from retaliatory tariffs imposed by China, Canada, and Mexico. 💼 Rising inflation in the US could prompt a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. 💼 A sharp correction in the US stock market is likely, which could negatively impact Trump’s popularity. 💼 The negative wealth effect of a market correction could further slow down US economic growth. 💼 The Trump administration may soon realize the risks associated with escalating trade tensions. 💼 Investors should adopt a wait-and-watch approach while monitoring key developments. 💼 Fairly valued growth stocks, particularly in domestic consumption sectors like financials and telecom, can be accumulated for the long term. 💼 Export-oriented stocks in non-US markets, such as select auto segments, also present opportunities. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Uncertainty unleashed by Trump is escalating tensions in global trade. 💼 The 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and the 20% tariff on China (with an additional 10% now imposed) indicate that threats are turning into action. 💼 Retaliation to these tariffs is inevitable, but the extent and impact are yet to be seen. 💼 If Trump’s tariff policies continue and start affecting more countries, it will be detrimental to global trade and the economy, including India. 💼 A key factor that could restrain Trump is the market reaction, as even he cannot control economic forces. 💼 Tariffs will likely push inflation higher in the US, prompting a hawkish Fed response. 💼 The US stock market, currently priced to perfection, risks a sharp correction or even a crash. 💼 Such an outcome, which Trump wants to avoid, could force a shift towards more balanced policies. 💼 However, the timeline for this shift remains uncertain. 💼 In the near term, the Indian market lacks clear triggers for a rebound, despite fair valuations. 💼 Investors should remain cautious and monitor developments closely before making major moves. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The main triggers for the sustained FII selling in India have been high valuations and attractive US bond yields. 💼 These important macros are undergoing a slow shift. Largecap valuations are now fair and, in segments like financials, attractive. 💼 US 10-year bond yields have declined to 4.21%. So, there is a possibility of FIIs reducing their selling going forward. 💼 There is good news on India’s growth front. The Q3 GDP growth picking up from 5.6% in Q2 to 6.2% in Q3 and suggesting above 7% growth in Q4 indicates a cyclical recovery, which bodes well for the stock market. 💼 The correction in the market is an opportunity for long-term investors to buy high-quality stocks. 💼 The February auto sales numbers reveal excellent performance from M&M and Eicher. IT stocks are also turning attractive. 💼 It is difficult to predict when the market will bottom out. But this is the time to start buying without worrying about near-term volatility. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Stock markets dislike uncertainty, and uncertainty has been on the rise ever since Trump was elected US president. 💼 The spate of tariff announcements by Trump has been impacting markets, and the latest announcement of an additional 10% tariff on China confirms the market view that Trump will use the initial months of his presidency to threaten countries with tariffs and then negotiate for a settlement favorable to the US. 💼 How China responds to the latest round of tariffs remains to be seen. 💼 Even now, the markets have not discounted a full-blown trade war between the US and China. It is likely to be avoided. 💼 However, the uncertainty element has increased, as reflected in the sharp spike in the CBOE volatility index to 21.13. 💼 March is likely to witness a recovery in the Indian market backed by better macro news flows and subdued FII selling. 💼 Since largecap valuations are fair, and in pockets attractive, FIIs are unlikely to press selling as aggressively as in the last few months. 💼 Long-term investors can utilize the weakness in the market to slowly accumulate fairly-valued quality largecaps and select fairly-valued stocks in the broader market, like defense stocks, for instance. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 In FY25, so far, FIIs have sold stocks in the cash market for ₹3,87,976 crores. 💼 Interestingly, DIIs have more than compensated for this selling by buying ₹5,55,519 crores. 💼 Despite this, the market has been trending down. 💼 It is possible that the activity of HNIs, UHNIs, and family offices, which are not reflected in the DII data, are also impacting the market. 💼 This smart investor category might have been on the sell side since they move with fundamentals, and fundamentals have been deteriorating with the cyclical slowdown in GDP growth and corporate earnings. 💼 The sharp correction in the broader market has made valuations in certain segments attractive. 💼 Defence stocks, which had run up too much too fast, have corrected sharply, making their valuations attractive for long-term investors. 💼 Since a broad rally in the market will need indications of recovery in growth and earnings, investors can focus on micros rather than macros in the near term. 💼 Plenty of stock-specific action ahead, despite headwinds from FII selling and Trump tariff news. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The market is oversold, largecap valuations are fair, and short positions in the market are high. 💼 This warrants a bounce back, particularly if short covering happens. 💼 The real issue is the relentless FII selling in the cash market, which has touched ₹43,200 crores in February so far. 💼 Since cash market selling and shorting in the derivatives market have been profitable for FIIs, they might continue to sell and try to profit from the negative momentum in the market. 💼 It is the sustained DII buying that is preventing the market from a capitulation. 💼 Trump tariff uncertainty will continue to weigh on markets. 💼 Domestically, we need indications of a growth and earnings recovery in India. 💼 Investors should stay with quality stocks, which will bounce back when the inevitable recovery happens. Patience is the key. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The market is facing headwinds from relentless FII selling and global uncertainties relating to Trump tariffs. 💼 The sharp surge in Chinese stocks is another near-term headwind. 💼 The ‘Sell India, Buy China’ trade may continue for some time since Chinese stocks continue to be attractive. 💼 The sharp spike in CBOE VIX indicates that volatility will continue for some time. 💼 In the US, long-term inflation expectations are rising, and therefore, the expected rate cut by the Fed is unlikely to materialize. 💼 The Fed might even turn hawkish, impacting US stock markets. 💼 If this happens and the US bond yields start declining, FIIs may cease to be sellers in India and may even resume buying. 💼 The near-term scenario is highly uncertain. 💼 The positive factor in our market is that the valuations of largecaps have turned fair, and in certain segments like financials, attractive—giving opportunities for long-term investors to buy. 💼 Even though the broader market valuations continue to be high, there are opportunities in select stocks in this segment. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Trump’s tariff threats are leading to negative market reactions in potential target sectors like autos and pharmaceuticals. 💼 In contrast, investors are looking for opportunities in domestic consumption plays that will not be impacted by tariff threats. 💼 This trend is likely to be short-term since Trump’s strategy is to threaten with tariffs and then negotiate for tariff reductions on US exports. 💼 Higher tariffs on US imports are inflationary, which could invite hawkish comments from the Fed, negatively impacting the US stock market. Trump is likely using the interim period to negotiate with trading partners. 💼 FII selling in India is expected to continue, particularly with renewed interest in cheap and recovering Chinese stocks. 💼 The selling pressure on largecaps will persist, presenting a long-term opportunity for investors. 💼 Select midcaps, especially in the defence sector, which have corrected and are now fairly valued, may see buying interest as they are not subject to heavy FII selling. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets