Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 The Budget expectations and actuals will influence the market today and tomorrow. 💼 Since we are going into the Budget without a pre-Budget rally, the probability of a rally post-Budget will be high if the Budget delivers on growth-stimulating initiatives like a cut in personal income tax. 💼 However, it is important to understand that the impact of the Budget will last only for a few days at best. 💼 The medium to long-term trend of the market will be dictated by GDP and earnings growth. 💼 Therefore, investors should look for cues on these crucial macro trends. 💼 The market is strongly reacting to results, with good results being rewarded and poor results getting punished. This has spiked market volatility. 💼 Fairly valued, high-quality largecap financials continue to be a safe sector for investors. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The recovery in the market is healthy since it is being led by fairly valued largecaps. 💼 The rally can sustain if the Budget comes up with strong growth-stimulating measures that can improve market sentiment. 💼 However, a sustained rally can happen only if FII selling stops and we get some leading indicators suggesting growth and earnings recovery. 💼 Globally, stock markets remain strong mainly due to the resilient US economy and the downtrending interest rate cycle in the US. 💼 The Fed’s decision to pause yesterday was on expected lines. 💼 The Fed chief Powell’s statement that “the central bank will need to see real progress on inflation or easing of labour conditions before making further adjustments” is a clear message that further cuts will be data-dependent. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 YTD, Nifty is down 3.3%, while Nifty Midcap is down 9.1% and Nifty Smallcap is down 14.71%. 💼 The takeaway from this important data is that valuations are reverting to the mean. This trend will make the market healthy and is likely to continue. 💼 Correction in the overvalued broader market is desirable. 💼 The recovery in the market witnessed yesterday can continue with resilience in fairly priced financials. However, a sharp rally is unlikely since FIIs will sell at higher levels. 💼 The market will be looking forward to positive cues in the Budget. 💼 The Fed decision today is unlikely to influence the market since no change in policy is expected from this meeting. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The DeepSeek impact on the US stock market in general, and the tech stocks in particular, has turned out to be a reality check for the overvalued stock market. 💼 In the medium term, this is likely to have a sobering effect on markets globally. 💼 The Indian market appears to be oversold and is set for a rebound. 💼 The RBI’s announcement of measures to boost liquidity in the banking system by around Rs 1.5 trillion is a positive for the market. 💼 This raises the prospects of a rate cut by the MPC in the February policy meeting. 💼 Banks are likely to benefit. 💼 After the correction, the market is now trading at fair valuations, which are in line with long-term (10-year) averages. 💼 Investors can utilise the opportunity to buy fundamentally strong, high-quality stocks. 💼 The outperformance of largecaps over mid- and smallcaps is a healthy trend. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The market sentiment has turned weak. 💼 Sustained FPI selling (Rs 69,000 crores in January, so far) is impacting the market. 💼 Despite DII buying of Rs 67,000 crores in January, so far, the market is under pressure. 💼 A major concern is that President Trump is coming up with new threats, like the 25% tariff on Columbia for its refusal to take back deported illegal immigrants. 💼 The threatened 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico might be implemented from February 1st onwards. 💼 Therefore, whether Trump will walk his talk on other threats, including tariffs on China and other countries, is a question being asked in economic and market circles now. These concerns are weighing on the markets. 💼 This 6-day week is likely to be highly volatile, with other major events like the Fed decision and the Budget in India. 💼 The market is looking forward to fiscal stimulus through income tax cuts in the Budget. 💼 If the expectations are met, there can be a relief rally in the market. 💼 But if a rally is to sustain, we need data indicating growth and earnings revival. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The strength of the US market with S&P 500 setting yet another record high and the 10-year US bond yield remaining strong around 4.65% will continue to weigh on the Indian market. 💼 FIIs will continue to sell, putting pressure on largecaps like banking. 💼 The irrationality in the market, characterised by fair and even low valuations for largecaps like banking and excessive valuations in the broader market, will have to reverse at some point of time. But we don’t know when that will happen. 💼 The Q3 results of IT companies and the management commentary indicating improving prospects for the sector suggest that the sector is a safe bet now. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 There are two trends in the market that deserve attention: 💼 One, the institutional activity is showing a consistent trend - sustained selling by FIIs and sustained buying by DIIs. 💼 Two, there is a trend towards quality - largecaps are resilient while the broader market is weakening. 💼 These two trends are likely to continue in the near-term. 💼 Since the dollar index and US bond yields continue to remain high, FIIs are unlikely to turn buyers any time soon. 💼 This will cap a rally in the market even though the market is in an oversold zone. 💼 Largecap financials, IT, and pharma can continue to support the market on declines. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 President Trump’s orders and announcements, so far, have been disruptive. 💼 He is doing tough talking initially to send the message that more stern measures are in the offing. 💼 Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS if they attempt dedollarisation is a repeat of his election campaign rhetoric. 💼 It appears that the markets took this threat too seriously. 💼 Nifty is down around 12% from the 2024 September highs. 💼 The correction provides a good opportunity for long-term investors to buy quality stocks, which are now available at fair valuations. 💼 The key to success will be patience. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Trump 2.0 has kicked off without much clarity on Trump’s likely economic decisions. 💼 In his inaugural address, he was clear on immigration but sounded vague on tariffs. 💼 The indication of a likely 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico suggests that the tariff hike policy will be implemented gradually. 💼 The currency market has reacted with a cut in the dollar index to 108.43 and the 10-year bond yield has declined to 4.54%. 💼 This is the classic case of ‘buy on rumours and sell on news.’ 💼 It is likely that further delays in tariff hikes will weaken the dollar and bring down the bond yields. If this happens, it will be good for emerging markets like India. 💼 But if the FII flows to India are to turn positive consistently, we will have to see a pickup in India’s GDP growth and corporate earnings. That’s the crucial macro data to watch. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets