💼 Uncertainty, which has been looming large on the global economic horizon, has spiked with the open spat between President Trump and Elon Musk. This unprecedented clash between two of the world’s most powerful and mercurial personalities will have its consequences on the policies of the US administration.
💼 Chinese restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals and magnets, in response to the reciprocal tariffs imposed by US, have already started impacting the EV automobile industry.
💼 Important US data like US ISM PMI and jobless claims indicate that the US economy is slowing down.
💼 US is likely to end 2025 with a GDP growth of mere 1%.
💼 US bond yields are likely to fall further which will be positive for EMs, particularly India, whose growth prospects are the brightest.
💼 In today’s monetary policy the RBI is likely to cut policy rates by 25 bp. This is already factored in by the market.
💼 More important will be the RBI commentary on growth and inflation projections for FY26.
💼 If the inflation forecast is cut from 4%, the market would respond positively.
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Posted on : 06 Jun 2025 9:43 AM
