Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 Uncertainty, which has been looming large on the global economic horizon, has spiked with the open spat between President Trump and Elon Musk. This unprecedented clash between two of the world’s most powerful and mercurial personalities will have its consequences on the policies of the US administration. 💼 Chinese restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals and magnets, in response to the reciprocal tariffs imposed by US, have already started impacting the EV automobile industry. 💼 Important US data like US ISM PMI and jobless claims indicate that the US economy is slowing down. 💼 US is likely to end 2025 with a GDP growth of mere 1%. 💼 US bond yields are likely to fall further which will be positive for EMs, particularly India, whose growth prospects are the brightest. 💼 In today’s monetary policy the RBI is likely to cut policy rates by 25 bp. This is already factored in by the market. 💼 More important will be the RBI commentary on growth and inflation projections for FY26. 💼 If the inflation forecast is cut from 4%, the market would respond positively. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Both geopolitical and economic news are likely to weigh on markets in the near-term. 💼 A serious concern is a potential Russian retaliation to the recent Ukraine attacks on Russian planes. 💼 How serious this will be and what will be its consequences are unknown factors now. 💼 The major economic news is the sharp dip in the US ISM PMI data. This indicates that the US economy is slowing down sharply. 💼 The US 10-year bond yield has declined to 4.36% and, given the slowing US economy, is likely to trend lower. This will turn out to be good for EMs like India in the medium term, but the spike in uncertainty will keep the market within the present range for the near-term. 💼 Buy on dips continues to be the ideal strategy now. 💼 Rate sensitives will be preferred in view of the expected rate cut by the MPC on 8th June. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The recent Nifty range of 24000–25000 is likely to persist in the near-term. 💼 In the medium-term, a breakout above 25000 is a clear possibility rather than a breakdown below 24000. 💼 Unexpected developments, however, can alter the scenario. 💼 The strong fundamental factors that will support the market are India’s robust and improving macros and sustained flows into mutual funds, particularly the SIP inflows which are steady and growing. This reflects the coming of age of the Indian retail investor. 💼 An important takeaway from the Q4 results is the outperformance of the midcaps relative to largecaps and smallcaps. 💼 Since CPI inflation in India is benign, the rate cutting cycle has more room to go with minimum two more rate cuts in 2025. Even though this will put the margins of the banks under some pressure, the leading names in the sector, particularly the large private banks, are well placed to deliver 12 to 15% returns in one year. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 During a consolidation phase, where the market moves within a range, buy on dips is the ideal strategy. And this strategy is working well now. 💼 With a lot of uncertainty in geopolitics, tariffs and trade, the market will continue to remain volatile. Therefore, investors may persist with the strategy of buying on dips. 💼 The concern in the market now is the high valuation, particularly in the broader market. But the trends in money flows into the market and the healthy trend of retail investors persisting with their investment for longer periods indicate that Indian equities will remain at higher valuations for an extended period of time. 💼 Since the MPC is expected to cut policy rate by 25 bp in the policy meet on 8th, rate sensitives are likely to be favoured in the coming days. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The market structure favours continuation of the ongoing consolidation phase. 💼There are global headwinds like renewed tariff concerns that will restrain a breakout rally. At the same time, there are domestic tailwinds that will support the market at lower levels. 💼 President Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium is a clear message that the tariff and trade scenario will continue to be uncertain and turbulent. This headwind will impact markets. 💼 On the domestic front, the tailwinds are getting stronger with the latest Q4 GDP growth data coming at 7.4%, which is much better-than-expected. 💼 Trends in consumption expenditure and capital expenditure are promising. This, along with low inflation and the expected continuation of the rate cutting policy, provides the perfect setting for sustained economic growth in FY26. 💼 The only challenge is the tepid earnings growth. 💼 If leading indicators suggest a recovery in earnings growth, there is a high probability of the market breaking out of the present range and moving higher. . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Stable institutional flows — both FII and DII — are keeping the market steady even in the absence of positive triggers. 💼 The ongoing consolidation phase is likely to continue in the near-term. 💼 Investors should understand two distinct big trends that will weigh on markets: One, India’s macros are strong and improving. Two, this positive trend in macros is not getting reflected in corporate earnings. This is the fundamental reason for the range-bound movement of the market. 💼 FY25 Nifty earnings growth was a pedestrian 5.5% and the projection for FY26 is around 10%. 💼 Valuation multiple of 21 for 10% earnings growth is certainly on the higher side. This will cap the upside to the Nifty until leading indicators suggest a recovery in earnings growth. 💼 At the same time, steadily improving macros like resilient GDP growth, down trending inflation and interest rates, and declining fiscal and current account deficits lay the foundation for a strong economy and earnings recovery in the medium term. 💼 Investors should remain invested and buy quality stocks on dips. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Trump’s tariff-related news continues to impact markets. 💼 The US Federal court striking down the reciprocal tariffs is a clear message that the maverick president cannot ride roughshod over markets and economy with his questionable decisions. This court ruling is the second big blow to President Trump after the blow delivered by the bond market which forced the Trump administration to pause the tariffs for 90 days. 💼 From the market perspective, this is a positive development. 💼 Nifty is consolidating in a 500 point range within 24500 - 25000. 💼 A breakout or breakdown from this range appears difficult in the near-term. 💼 All the action is in the mid and smallcap space in response to the results. 💼 Investors should not chase mid and smallcaps without any concern for valuations. 💼 Quality mid and smallcaps have the potential to outperform. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Positive cues from the US market, weak dollar and soft gold will provide a favourable macro construct for the equity market today. 💼 Large liquidity with the mutual funds and the trend of sustained SIP inflows would encourage fund managers to buy consistently. 💼 Tariff-related issues and President Trump’s comments on a whole host of economic and non-economic issues would continue to weigh on markets. 💼 The MPC is almost certain to cut policy rates by 25 bp in the June 6th policy meeting. Therefore, rate sensitives will be in focus in the coming days. 💼 Buy on dips is the ideal strategy in the present phase of market consolidation. 💼 BAT’s decision to sell 2.3% stake in ITC will keep the stock subdued. This will provide opportunity for long-term investors to buy this fairly-valued bluechip. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 In the near-term the market is likely to consolidate around the current levels. Since mutual funds are sitting on sizeable cash, any dip will be bought into and high valuations will trigger selling on rallies. 💼 A sustained rally will happen only when leading indicators suggest revival in earnings growth. That is some time away. 💼 An important trend in the market now is the slow accumulation in rate sensitives like autos in anticipation of more rate cuts which are almost sure to happen since inflation is trending down. 💼 A significant feature of the SIP flows during this phase of the market is that investors are staying invested for longer time periods than in the past. This will provide support to the market. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity