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💼 Market is currently in the midst of two opposing forces: one negative and the other positive. 💼 Sharp depreciation of above 5% in the rupee and RBI’s policy of non-intervention to support the currency is a negative from the FII’s perspective. 💼 This has pushed the FIIs back to the sustained selling mode pulling the Nifty down by 340 points from the recent record high. 💼 The positive factor is India’s improving fundamentals – robust economic growth, low inflation, supportive monetary and fiscal policies and indications of steadily improving corporate earnings. 💼 It is important to understand that the negative factor may weigh on the market in the near-term, but the positive factor will dominate in the mid-term enabling the market to resume its upward journey. 💼 Therefore, this near-term currency-induced weakness can be used by long-term investors to accumulate high quality large and midcap stocks. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Nifty’s correction of about 300 points from the record high can be seen as a correction driven by technical factors like rejig in the Bank Nifty and the concerns arising from the continued depreciation of the rupee. 💼 Rejig in the Bank Nifty and the consequent reduction in the weight of HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank are pure technical factors that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of these stocks. 💼 With improving credit growth in the economy and strong fundamentals of these banking majors, they will bounce back in due course. 💼 A real concern now, which has contributed to the slow drifting down of the market, is the continued depreciation in the rupee and fears of further depreciation since the RBI is not intervening to support the rupee. 💼 This concern is forcing the FIIs to sell despite the improving fundamentals of rising corporate earnings and strong rebound in GDP growth. 💼 The rupee depreciation will halt and even reverse when the India-US trade deal materialises. This is likely this month. 💼 A lot, however, will depend on the details of the tariffs to be imposed on India as part of the deal. 💼 The ideal strategy for investors in this period of uncertainty is to remain invested in high quality growth stocks in the large and midcap segments. 💼 Smallcaps, as a segment, continues to be overvalued and are, therefore, best avoided. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

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💼 It appears that the market is consolidating around the new record highs before breaking out to new highs. 💼 There is fundamental support for newer highs as reflected in the robust GDP numbers and the leading indicators like auto sales in November. 💼 The continuing weakness in the rupee is a dampener which is impacting FII flows. 💼 A fair trade deal between India and the US can stem the weakness in rupee, but this has been hanging fire for too long. 💼 Investors can use the current period of consolidation to slowly accumulate fairly-valued largecaps and growth-oriented midcaps which will lead the next leg of rally in the market. 💼 The Smallcap segment continues to be over-valued. 💼 The Bank Nifty, despite the recent run up, have the potential to impart resilience to the market since there is valuation comfort in this segment. 💼 The pick up in credit growth is another positive for the segment. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

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💼 ‘New record at the index level but no celebration in the market’ is the unique feature of the ongoing rally in the market. 💼 For most retail investors, their portfolio values are lower than those at the previous peak of September 2024. 💼 The reason for this paradox is the narrow nature of the rally. 💼 It is important to understand that eight stocks – HDFC Bank, RIL, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, L&T, ITC, Infy and SBI – have 50% weighting in Nifty. 💼 So when 5 or 6 of these heavy weights move up, assisted by a few other stocks, the index rises. 💼 This was what happened in this record breaking rally. 💼 Equally important is the fact that 330 stocks in NSE 500 are below their September 2024 peak. 💼 Most retail investors’ portfolios are dominated by stocks in this non-performing segment. 💼 The excellent Q2GDP numbers at 8.2%, particularly the impressive growth in manufacturing, services, and final consumption expenditure, have the potential to take the market higher. 💼 The modest nominal growth at 8.7% due to low GDP deflator is disappointing, from the market perspective. 💼 Another dampener from the market perspective is that a rate cut from the MPC may not materialise on Friday since the economy doesn’t need a monetary stimulus when it is firing on all cylinders. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets