Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 After the sharp surge in the market yesterday, mainly in response to the ceasefire, it is time to take stock and try to understand the likely direction of the market, going forward. It is important to understand that the sharp 916 point surge in Nifty was not caused by institutional activity. 💼 The combined FII and DII buying yesterday was only Rs 2694 crores. This means the market surge was triggered by short-covering and HNI plus retail buying. This implies that institutional activity is likely to remain subdued in the coming days which may constrain the continuation of the rally. 💼 The agreement between US and China to reduce tariffs for 90 days signals the possibility of the end of the trade war between US and China. This augurs well for the global economy. Since the probability of a recession in the US has come down, Indian IT companies might benefit from the higher tech spending by US companies. 💼 Indian pharma exporters will face pricing pressure in the US from Trump’s executive order reducing drug prices. This will impact their stock prices. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The ceasefire between India and Pakistan has paved the way for a sharp rally in the market. 💼 The prime mover of the rally will be the FII buying which has been sustained for sixteen continuous days except last Friday when the conflict escalated. 💼 Domestic macros like expectations of high GDP growth and revival of earnings growth in FY26 and declining inflation and interest rates augur well for the resumption of a rally in the market. 💼 FII favourite largecaps like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, RIL, L&T, Bharti, Ultratech, M&M and Eicher are likely to lead the rally. 💼 Midcap IT and digital stocks are other segments to watch. 💼 Pharma stocks may come under near-term pressure from President Trump’s latest announcement regarding reducing prices of drugs in the US. 💼 There are rumours of impending US deal with China on trade but details are yet to come. 💼 If a deal materialises that would be good for the global economy. But from an Indian perspective that would be slightly disappointing since we were expecting a trade deal with the US ahead of many nations including China . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Under normal circumstances, on a day like this, the market would have suffered deep cuts. But this is unlikely due to two reasons. 💼 One, the conflict, so far, has demonstrated India’s clear superiority in conventional warfare, and, therefore, further escalation of the conflict will inflict huge damage to Pakistan. Two, the market is inherently resilient supported by global and domestic macros. 💼 Weak dollar and potentially weakening US and Chinese economies are good for the Indian market. 💼 The domestic macros construct is further rendered stronger by the high GDP growth expected this year and the declining interest rate environment. These are the reasons why FIIs have been on a buying spree in the Indian market during the last sixteen trading sessions. 💼 Investors should not panic and exit from the market now. 💼 Remain invested, monitor the developments and wait for the dust to settle. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Uncertainty regarding the extent of an expected face-saving response from Pakistan to India’s Operation Sindoor will weigh on markets. 💼 From the market perspective, it is important that the conflict should not escalate. 💼 An escalation, apart from other fallouts, will also impact India’s fiscal consolidation drive. If the MPC is to continue with rate cuts, fiscal consolidation is important. 💼 The Fed chief Jerome Powell’s observation yesterday that “risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen” and that “we think we can be patient” is a clear message that the Fed chief will not accommodate President Trump’s demand for rate cuts. 💼 The Fed’s action will be data dependent. 💼 A US-UK trade deal appears likely today, and this can be seen as the beginning of trade deals between US and other countries. 💼 In the current context of uncertainty investors may wait and watch the developments on the India-Pak tensions. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 What stands out in “Operation Sindoor” from the market perspective is its focused and non-escalatory nature. 💼 We have to wait and watch how the enemy reacts to these precision strikes by India. 💼 The market is unlikely to be impacted by the retaliatory strike by India since that was known and discounted by the market. 💼 The main catalyst of the market resilience in India is the sustained FII buying of the last 14 trading days which has touched a cumulative figure of Rs 43940 crores in the cash market. 💼 FIIs are focused on the global macros like weak dollar, slower growth in US and China in 2025 and India’s potential outperformance in growth. This can keep the market resilient. However, investors have to watch the developments on the border. 💼 The big shift in market preference in favour of largecaps away from overvalued segments of mid and smallcaps is significant. 💼 FIIs, as always, are mainly buying largecaps. This trend can continue. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Sustained FII buying for the 13th day in a row, supported by a weak dollar, has imparted resilience and support to the market despite the India-Pak tensions. This resilience is further reinforced by tailwinds in the form of soft crude, declining inflation, and the RBI’s cheap money policy of rate cuts and abundant liquidity injection. 💼 These tailwinds have the potential to facilitate high GDP growth and improving corporate earnings in FY26. And the market is likely to discount this by moving to new highs. But the uncertainty regarding the India-Pak tensions will keep the market range-bound in the near term. 💼 Large cap IT has bottomed out. 💼 Large cap private sector banking stocks will remain resilient despite the recent run-up. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The reversal in FII strategy in India from selling to buying continued for the week ending 2nd May. 💼 During the first three months of 2025, FIIs have been big sellers through the exchanges. Cumulatively, FIIs sold equity for ₹1,29,680 crores during this 3-month period. 💼 During the last 12 trading days, FIIs have been sustained buyers in the cash market, having bought equities for ₹40,145 crores cumulatively. This is a major pivot in FII strategy, and this will impart resilience to the market. 💼 The concern now is India’s retaliatory action to the terrorist strike and its fallout. This concern will restrict the FII-led rally. 💼 The steep decline in the Dollar Index from 111 on 11th January to 99 recently continues to be a strong tailwind for the market. 💼 The outperformance of the largecaps over the broader market is a healthy trend that is playing out now. This trend can sustain. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 After the sharp market correction triggered by Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the Pahalgam terror strikes, April has closed with above 4% gains in Nifty. This surprising resilience of the market has been primarily driven by the sustained FII buying for eleven trading days in a row, taking the cumulative FII buying for this period to ₹37,375 crores. 💼 FII buying has been driven by weakness in the dollar and declining growth prospects in the US. Other macros like declining interest rates in India, decline in the crude price, and green shoots of pick-up in demand are positives for the market. 💼 The high probability of India, among the five ‘allies’ of the US, entering into early trade deals with the US is also a significant positive factor. However, at the current juncture of high valuations (Nifty trading at above 20 times estimated FY26 earnings) and high India-Pak tensions, the near-term risk-reward is not in favour of high reward. Therefore, investors can play it safe by increasing the cash component in the portfolio even while remaining invested. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The surprising resilience of the market is significant. After the reciprocal tariff tantrums and the heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, Nifty is up 5% in April. This underscores the importance of not panicking during a crisis. It is important to remain invested. 💼 The crucial support to the market is coming from the sustained FII inflows, which have touched a cumulative figure of ₹37,325 crores in the last 10 trading sessions. 💼 The weakness of the dollar and India’s economic resilience are supporting this FII’s India trade. This can continue. However, investors should exercise caution. 💼 Since markets have rewarded patience and many stocks have appreciated handsomely, investors can do partial profit booking and increase the cash component in their portfolio. This strategy should be as a measure of abundant caution. 💼 There are unknown unknowns in the market now. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets