Geojit Financial Services Ltd

💼 With the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, global markets have shifted to a risk-on mode, reflecting improving sentiment. However, since the reciprocal tariff issue is still unresolved, a sustained rally may face some hurdles. 💼 The near-term market focus will revolve around developments leading to July 9th, when the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs ends. 💼 Positive news on a potential India-US trade deal would act as a powerful catalyst for the Indian markets. 💼 On the flip side, any disappointment on this front may temporarily limit the rally, keeping the market range-bound. 💼 FIIs may look to book profits, considering that Indian valuations are stretched at over 22x FY26 earnings, compared to the more attractive 15x for Chinese stocks (Hang Seng). This valuation gap may briefly revive the ‘Sell India, Buy China’ strategy among some FIIs. 💼 However, strong DII liquidity, driven by robust SIP and retail inflows, will absorb any FII selling pressure with ease. This strong domestic demand for equities will continue to impart stability and resilience to the market, keeping it well-supported on dips. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 A significant feature of the recent market trend has been its remarkable resilience, even amid major challenges like the West Asian crisis. 💼 The market’s ability to stay steady during events like the India-Pak conflict further highlights this underlying strength. 💼 A key driver of this resilience has been FII buying during periods of uncertainty, showcasing their confidence in India’s economic fundamentals. 💼 Interestingly, FIIs have tended to book profits after the crisis subsides, as seen in their selling activity yesterday. On the other hand, DIIs continue to be strong buyers, supported by robust and consistent inflows into mutual funds. 💼 This strong domestic liquidity will continue to impart resilience to the market, even when FIIs turn cautious due to valuation concerns. 💼 The latest remarks from Fed chief Jerome Powell suggest that while rate cuts may happen later this year, the risks from tariff-related inflation persist for now. 💼 The primary challenge for investors is to identify stocks that offer the right balance between growth and value, given that growth stocks remain richly valued. 💼 For long-term investors, segments like the capital market, domestic consumption (aviation, telecom), and premium consumption sectors like hotels, automobiles, and jewellery offer attractive opportunities for steady growth. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The dramatic developments in West Asia culminating in President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire indicate that the worst of the conflict is behind us. 💼 The sharp reactions in crude oil and stock markets signal that geopolitical tensions are easing, and stability is returning. 💼 Nifty, which has been consolidating in the 24,500–25,000 range, is now set to decisively break out on the upside. 💼 Sustaining higher levels, however, will depend on progress in trade negotiations, particularly with the reciprocal tariff pause ending on July 9th. 💼 Positive developments on the trade front could act as the next major trigger for the market. 💼 Sectors such as paints, adhesives, tyres, and OMCs will benefit from the sharp fall in crude prices. On the flip side, ONGC and Oil India may come under pressure due to declining oil prices. 💼 Investors may now focus on reasonably valued domestic cyclicals like financials, aviation, telecom, and capital goods, which offer better safety and growth visibility. 💼 The improving macros and receding geopolitical risks provide an encouraging backdrop for calibrated accumulation in quality stocks. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Even though the US bombing of Iran’s three nuclear facilities has worsened the crisis in West Asia, the impact on the market is likely to be limited. 💼 The uncertain factor now is the timing and nature of the Iranian response. 💼 If Iran targets and damages the US defence facilities in the region or hurts US military personnel seriously, the US response can be huge and this might further worsen the crisis. 💼 But the market assessment is that there are limits to what Iran can do against the US and Israel. 💼 That’s why the early market responses – crude prices, US futures, and the absence of panic in Asian markets – have been muted. 💼 Even though the possibility of the closure of Hormuz Strait is a threat, it is important to understand that this has always been only a threat and the Strait had never been closed. 💼 The fact is that the closure of Hormuz Strait will harm Iran and Iran’s friend China more than anyone else. 💼 The market construct continues to favour a ‘buy on dips’ strategy. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Nifty, which has been trading within the 24,500–25,000 range for about a month, is likely to remain within this range in the near term. 💼 A breakout above 25,000 is possible if positive news emerges, such as a de-escalation or abrupt end to the Israel-Iran conflict. 💼 The downside is well protected, with strong buying interest from domestic institutions likely to emerge on dips. However, if the conflict lingers and crude rises above $85, there is a chance the lower band of 24,500 could be tested. 💼 A key trend observed in the last trading session was the weakness in the broader market, particularly in SMIDs (Small and Midcaps), with the smallcap index falling 2%. This indicates a shift in sentiment due to valuation concerns and global risk-off mood. 💼 The ongoing correction in SMIDs may continue, driven by their stretched valuations and rising volatility. This phase could see a healthy rotation of funds into fairly valued, fundamentally strong largecaps, especially in financials, industrials, autos, and real estate. 💼 Investors can adopt a selective and cautious approach, focusing on quality and stability while using dips as opportunities in largecap space. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The 24,500–25,000 range for the Nifty is likely to hold steady unless we see a major shift in news from the Israel-Iran conflict. 💼 Any signs of de-escalation can lead to a breakout above the 25,000 mark, signaling renewed strength. 💼 On the flip side, an escalation involving the Strait of Hormuz that causes a spike in crude could challenge the 24,500 support level. 💼 Investors should keep an eye on developments in West Asia, as they will guide the next move. 💼 The Fed’s decision and commentary came on expected lines, with Jerome Powell noting that the US economy remains “in a solid position” despite uncertainties. 💼 His caution that “tariff effects on inflation can be persistent” suggests that immediate rate cuts may not be on the table. 💼 The Fed’s dot plot still shows two rate cuts in 2025, which keeps the longer-term outlook constructive. 💼 With the US economy expected to grow just 1.4% this year, capital flows may tilt in favour of EMs like India. 💼 However, for a sustained rally, the Indian market needs more clarity on earnings growth. 💼 Until then, valuations will limit upside, but the medium-term structure remains supportive for investors staying selectively invested. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The latest tweet by President Trump and US defence movements in West Asia indicate a further escalation in the conflict. However, there is no panic in global equity markets, suggesting that investors believe this tension may ease without major economic fallout. 💼 It’s important to remember that since the Covid crash of March 2020 — when Nifty plunged to 7511 — the market has been in a strong bull run, climbing every wall of worry. 💼 This time too, the market appears poised to absorb the Israel-Iran conflict with resilience. Despite rich valuations, especially in the broader market, ample liquidity and optimism over an earnings turnaround continue to provide solid support. 💼 The Nifty’s 24,500–25,000 range is expected to hold in the near-term. 💼 A breakout above 25,000 is likely once positive developments emerge from the West Asian front. 💼 The “buy on dips” strategy remains effective, backed by steady domestic flows and market sentiment. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 Despite the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, global stock markets remain steady and resilient. 💼 The decline in the US volatility index (CBOE VIX) indicates that markets are unlikely to correct sharply unless the conflict worsens dramatically. 💼 A key driver of this resilience is the retail investors' confidence, who continue to buy every dip with conviction. 💼 Valuation concerns have not deterred retail investors, showcasing their growing maturity and long-term outlook. 💼 In the past 4 trading days since the conflict began, FIIs sold stocks worth ₹8,080 crores. However, this selling has been more than offset by robust DII buying of ₹19,800 crores — a clear vote of confidence in Indian equities. 💼 Consistent retail SIP flows are empowering DIIs to stay active and supportive in the market. 💼 Technically, the Nifty has strong support at 24,500 and is likely to face resistance at 25,000. Even while maintaining a bit of caution, staying invested and buying quality stocks on dips remains the ideal strategy in this market. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets

💼 The uncertainty stemming from the Israel-Iran conflict has introduced a brief risk-off sentiment in global markets. 💼 Gold is witnessing safe haven buying, while the dollar remains weak — a supportive mix for emerging market assets. 💼 Interestingly, there is no panic in equity markets, indicating underlying strength and resilience. 💼 Markets will face serious pressure only if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz — a scenario that currently seems unlikely. 💼 Historically, such risk-off phases have proven to be valuable opportunities for long-term investors. 💼 Unlike earlier episodes, this time we haven’t seen aggressive equity selling — keeping valuations relatively stable. 💼 Sustained domestic retail buying and strong mutual fund inflows continue to anchor the market at higher levels. This unique setup makes it a good time for long-term investors to look at relatively reasonably valued sectors like financials. 💼 Selective stock picking with a focus on quality and growth remains the right strategy in this phase. . . . #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets