Geojit Private Wealth

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💼The rebound in tech stocks in Nasdaq has led to rebound in chip stocks in S Korea and Taiwan. So, the AI trade continues though at subdued pace. 💼The decline in Brent crude to below $ 94 is a positive. There is no certainty that the fragile peace in the conflict between Iran and Israel will hold. 💼A US Federal judge has struck down President Trump’s H1-B visa fee. This is a mild positive for Indian IT stocks. 💼The FIIs’ short position in the market is huge and, therefore, expect volatility today since the weekly expiry may lead to high volumes. 💼The bulls are too weak to stage a strong comeback and the bears are strong enough to press selling on rises. 💼The sustained selling by FIIs shows no sign of fatigue. 💼The large cap valuations are fair, and in segments like banking attractive, mainly due to the selling by FIIs. This segment offers a good buying opportunity for investors with a two to three-year time horizon. The risk-reward ratio is favourable for buyers. 💼There is brisk activity in mid and small caps where Q4 results have been good and growth prospects are high.

💼 There are strong headwinds for the market as trading begins for the week. 💼 The sharp cut of 4.18% in Nasdaq last Friday has rattled global markets with tech dominated South Korea and Taiwan facing big sell-off. 💼 The escalation of conflict in West Asia, with Iran firing missiles at Israel in retaliation to Israel’s aggression in Lebanon, has hardened crude prices. 💼 Brent has moved above $96. The jobs data from the US is good, and therefore, the Fed will not cut rates as President Trump wants. The rates are likely to be on hold for some time. 💼 The Indian market is likely to surprise today. If the market opens with deep cut of 300 points on the Nifty as the implied open suggests, there is likely to be a strong recovery on DII and retail buying. 💼 It is important to note that the sell-off in US on Friday was a tech-led sell off. This can trigger a rotation from AI trade to non-AI trade which can be beneficial for India. 💼 Rupee appreciating to 94.94 level from the recent low of 96.96 is likely to deter the FIIs from sustained selling in India. GDP growth for FY26 coming at 7.7% and the better-than-expected Q4 results can provide fundamental support to the market.